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 Topic: Coincidence Probability calculations

 (Read 3973 times)
  • 1« Previous thread | Next thread »
  • Coincidence Probability calculations
     OP - June 30, 2012, 03:55 PM

    Hi guys,

    Does anyone know what is the methodology to calculate coincidences, and their probabilities, normally I dismiss coincidences as simply coincidences however, sometimes the coincidences don't appear to be so coincidental if you get what I mean, they don't appear to be random, even thought they probably are (Occam's Razor). So, what I wanted to do was find a way to calculate it, I am crap at math but I would like to be able to have some mathematical formula to calculate coincidental probability.

    Maybe the formula can be tweaked to calculate an average coincidental probability of an human being throughout their life.

    I think if you can show that coincidental incidences are common, that would take the supernatural meaning some subscribe to coincidences out of the context. As, I am starting to think coincidences are pretty common, and if it can be show experimentally that would be great.
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #1 - June 30, 2012, 04:03 PM

    .
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #2 - June 30, 2012, 04:15 PM


    What brought this on, KT? wacko


    To be honest, I kind of thought things were getting a little shitty around here, with all the prepubescent banter and all that nonsense. So, I figured I'll start making some topics which require abit more thinking. And not to mention I was thinking about this subject, had a few debates on paltalk in Islamic rooms etc.

    On a side note: Soon I will be addressing some of Hamza's blog posts (http://www.hamzatzortzis.com/essays-articles/philosophy-theology/the-quranic-argument-for-gods-existence/). I've had a few folks tell me they converted to Islam because Hamza convinced them of the logic behind it, so I think we need to start addressing some of those things too. 
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #3 - June 30, 2012, 04:20 PM

    .
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #4 - June 30, 2012, 04:22 PM

    Ah, good stuff man. Can't be of much help myself though, since I suck at maths. Tongue

    Prepubescent banter, you say? I have no idea what you're talking about... whistling2


    Why is it, that most Ex-Muslims I know suck at math? Whats going on? lol
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #5 - June 30, 2012, 04:25 PM

     I've had a few folks tell me they converted to Islam because Hamza convinced them of the logic{ Over react Run for the hills} behind it, so I think we need to start addressing some of those things too.  






    The World is my country, all mankind are my brethren, and to do good is my religion.
                                   Thomas Paine

    Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored !- Aldous Huxley
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #6 - June 30, 2012, 04:29 PM

    Yeah basically, Hamza in other words impressed them with his hocus pocus crap and magic zamzam potions.
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #7 - June 30, 2012, 05:15 PM

    That link of hamza's blog posts that you provided is full of sophistry, its due to the lazy mindedness of these muslims that Hamza takes advantage of and fools them.

    "I'm standing here like an asshole holding my Charles Dickens"

    "No theory,No ready made system,no book that has ever been written to save the world. i cleave to no system.."-Bakunin
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #8 - June 30, 2012, 05:23 PM

    That link of hamza's blog posts that you provided is full of sophistry, its due to the lazy mindedness of these muslims that Hamza takes advantage of and fools them.


    Yeah, this is why I think its important to discredit him, since many Muslims clutch on to such straws to remain Muslims, its a reinforcing doubt. I know its boring and takes alot of time debunking this kind of nonsense but I think it is nesassry. They use these arguments on atheists who might not be well verses in these subjects to get them to convert to Islam, they do this to a you on youtube and to top it all of they use a Muslim girl as an alluring object to get the dude to convert on an emotional level by using the Muslim girl to flatter him.
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #9 - June 30, 2012, 05:38 PM

    Have you noticed Hamza has not added a date to that post, this is because he posted it (or edited) after I posted a topic last year which I debunked Hamza's argument, so basically he has tried to take those contradictions out which I raised and tried to explain the Kalam argument in a much robust fashion. What a sly person he is.

    http://www.councilofexmuslims.com/index.php?PHPSESSID=d1ed68cd809d7c63ef25756ee0e2414e&topic=16206.msg450857#msg450857

    wow, its actually from a  post 3 years ago:
    http://www.councilofexmuslims.com/index.php?PHPSESSID=d1ed68cd809d7c63ef25756ee0e2414e&topic=16206.msg451601#msg451601

    http://www.councilofexmuslims.com/index.php?PHPSESSID=d1ed68cd809d7c63ef25756ee0e2414e&topic=16206.msg451601#msg451601

    Hamza abusing the Razor (Must read):
    http://www.councilofexmuslims.com/index.php?topic=18863.0

    So it seems Hamza has updated his argument and tried to get out of the contradictions I pointed out to the Kalam argument.

    The latest one I did:
    http://www.councilofexmuslims.com/index.php?topic=18884.0

    What a cheap guy, now after i debunk is latest post, he will have to go back and update his argument, what a joke!


      
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #10 - June 30, 2012, 06:19 PM

    Good work KT, This guy is a joke, i mean anyone with a basic knowledge of Renaissance philosophy especially David Hume and Immanuel Kant's works can see through his flawed arguments. Who is putting him up to do this kind of work to the extent of being intellectual dishonest ?.

    "I'm standing here like an asshole holding my Charles Dickens"

    "No theory,No ready made system,no book that has ever been written to save the world. i cleave to no system.."-Bakunin
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #11 - June 30, 2012, 06:37 PM

    A simple formula I've used in this situation is that the probability of the particular coincidence happening at all is 1-((1-P)^N)

    P is the probability of the coincidence happening in any one opportunity where it could happen
    N is the number of opportunities for it to happen

    In other words, the probability of it happening at least once by chance = 1 minus the probability of it not happening in any of the opportunities.

    Even if the resulting probability is low, you would then point out that there are many many different types of coincidence that would look to a Muslim like it was by design, so it is highly probable that an unlikely one should occur.

    You could even feed the result in as the P for another iteration of the formula so this time P is the probability of that particular unlikely coincidence happening at all, and N would be the number of different types of unlikely coincidence that would appeal to a Muslim (thousands, or millions). This time the resulting probability will pretty much = 1 = virtual certainty to happen.
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #12 - June 30, 2012, 06:44 PM

    Good to see people debunking Hamza's nonsense. There will be more of that coming soonish from a certain youtuber (this time embryology, but new counter-arguments and research)!

    I think the wiki never took off but it would be great if there was a directory with headings for Islamic philosophical, scienctific etc. arguments and under each have links to the best forum or blog posts / vids where someone has contributed a new counter-argument(s).

    There must be a hell of a lot of gems of info and arguments that are posted here but are soon lost, never to be seen again...
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #13 - June 30, 2012, 06:46 PM

    Thanks for that. NJ7. I think we can broaden it a little to apply to all humans living at the time. So, basically improbably events happen all the time, but how does the probability decrease if those improbably events happen to the same person often. It wouldn't be improbable, for two or three improbable events to happen to one person through his life-time, so how many improbable events would it take to happen to a person to say that we simply cannot explain them using probability, as its outside the error margin?  
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #14 - June 30, 2012, 06:50 PM

    Good to see people debunking Hamza's nonsense. There will be more of that coming soonish from a certain youtuber (this time embryology, but new counter-arguments and research)!

    I think the wiki never took off but it would be great if there was a directory with headings for Islamic philosophical, scienctific etc. arguments and under each have links to the best forum or blog posts / vids where someone has contributed a new counter-argument(s).

    There must be a hell of a lot of gems of info and arguments that are posted here but are soon lost, never to be seen again...


    That is a really good idea, I think we should press Osmanthus about this. Since sometimes I have a hard time finding my own posts, which have addressed some of the points hamza raises, and there are probably 1000s of great posts which can fit into that category when filed properly.
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #15 - June 30, 2012, 07:13 PM

    Thanks for that. NJ7. I think we can broaden it a little to apply to all humans living at the time. So, basically improbably events happen all the time, but how does the probability decrease if those improbably events happen to the same person often. It wouldn't be improbable, for two or three improbable events to happen to one person through his life-time, so how many improbable events would it take to happen to a person to say that we simply cannot explain them using probability, as its outside the error margin?  


    No worries Smiley  That would be more complicated. It's equivalent to working out the probability of winning a raffle x times given that you enter y raffles. There will probably be webpages for just this scenario. It would involve what's called the n choose k formula.

    Whatever result you get could then be used as P in my formula where N is the number of people who could potentially have experienced this chain of coincidences that would impress your Muslim friend, possibly 1.4 billion depending on the topic!

    Anyway that would tell you the probability and you can judge whether it's so low that it's beyond the plausibility of being a mere coincidence.


    Edit: ANother thing to bear in mind is that very unlikely, but mundane things happen to us every day, e.g. a bird flies overhead at 4.32 in the afternoon. In fact you could say that about everything that happens if you go down to the atomic level. At the macro-level (e.g. bird flying overhead) the atomic possibilities can be grouped by the human mind into a category that we can give a much higher probability to.

    It's simply that certain events at the macro-level fit patterns that people store in their heads that make them seem intentional even when they aren't, so we bother to calculate the probability for them. If it's something that might be intended (your crazy friend often likes to surprise you by releasing a bird around 4.30pm), you can compare the probability of that happening intentionally with the probability of it as a coincidence and make a judgement. I think you could even use Bayesian probability at that point if I remember right.
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #16 - July 01, 2012, 02:27 AM

    interesting thread, I'm not familiar with hamza tzortzis tend to ignore em and their argument
    I'm not studying anymore, my brain were rusty, needs some oil, I'm reading this thread through sleep then wide awake, still I couldn't point what is it that I couldn't understand, not that I'm trying to say people here are not trying to make me understand, they do, or maybe there's too much noises in the background that's make me soo, or maybe I need some more coffee
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #17 - July 01, 2012, 12:22 PM

    No worries Smiley  That would be more complicated. It's equivalent to working out the probability of winning a raffle x times given that you enter y raffles. There will probably be webpages for just this scenario. It would involve what's called the n choose k formula.

    Whatever result you get could then be used as P in my formula where N is the number of people who could potentially have experienced this chain of coincidences that would impress your Muslim friend, possibly 1.4 billion depending on the topic!

    Anyway that would tell you the probability and you can judge whether it's so low that it's beyond the plausibility of being a mere coincidence.


    Edit: ANother thing to bear in mind is that very unlikely, but mundane things happen to us every day, e.g. a bird flies overhead at 4.32 in the afternoon. In fact you could say that about everything that happens if you go down to the atomic level. At the macro-level (e.g. bird flying overhead) the atomic possibilities can be grouped by the human mind into a category that we can give a much higher probability to.

    It's simply that certain events at the macro-level fit patterns that people store in their heads that make them seem intentional even when they aren't, so we bother to calculate the probability for them. If it's something that might be intended (your crazy friend often likes to surprise you by releasing a bird around 4.30pm), you can compare the probability of that happening intentionally with the probability of it as a coincidence and make a judgement. I think you could even use Bayesian probability at that point if I remember right.


    My problem is I am not very familiar with probability theory. I don't have any formal schooling in it, I'd have to learn about it. And any subject that requires complicated mathematics kind of puts me to sleep, I can't do math.

    Yes I ideally I want to establish something on a chain level of highly unlikely (but mundane) things happening to a person. For example:

    Person X was watching a TV program about penguins, just before bed time Person X reads a book, he picks a (seemingly random) book from his collection, and the book happens to be about penguins, a few days later he has an college/university exam and a question about penguins comes up lets say its very specific and relates to an aspect of penguin life which both specific to the TV program he watched AND a pass in the book her read not too long ago. After the exam he happens to come across a photo of a penguin on a wall, etc, and this reoccurring penguin theme keeps popping up at eventually it appears so many times that it is beyond random probability and in mathematical terms is a zero probability to happen.

    Now a formula to calculate something similar to that would be great, ideally we only want to establish when it becomes for mathematical terms a zero probability. Then we can establish some kind of basis to be able to judge then it could be easy you could ask someone how many coincidental experiences they've had throughout their life, and you can establish what you're dealing with, in a solid way.

    I'm going to look into a n choose k formula and Bayesian probability.

  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #18 - July 01, 2012, 12:29 PM

    interesting thread, I'm not familiar with hamza tzortzis tend to ignore em and their argument
    I'm not studying anymore, my brain were rusty, needs some oil, I'm reading this thread through sleep then wide awake, still I couldn't point what is it that I couldn't understand, not that I'm trying to say people here are not trying to make me understand, they do, or maybe there's too much noises in the background that's make me soo, or maybe I need some more coffee


    It's easy sometimes that happens to me too, but I have to really think about things, even though other might get them right way. All I am saying is, can we find a way to calculate how many unlikely events will happen to a person through their life time which can me shown to be beyond randomness?

    Another great one I remember, a man that was struck 7 times by lighting throughout his life, and died at the age of 71 from gunshot wounds! -  (Roy Cleveland Sullivan)
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #19 - July 01, 2012, 03:03 PM

    I think even with the perfect equation to use, it might be hard to demonstrate anything with it since you still need some actual numbers to input, and those numbers would be very vague estimates  / guesses most of the time (maybe something like probability of one lightning strike in a lifetime can be googled, then multiply it by itself 7 times and use as P in my formula, N is number of people who lived since recorded history). Plus the people you're trying to convince won't bother to try to understand the formula.

    I just realised though that there is however something relatively easy to explain - a major reason for a lot of mistakes people make is confusing two very different probabilities.

    The probability of me rolling 2 sixes on a fair dice is 1/36. I also pray that I will get 2 sixes. Now if I roll 2 sixes does that mean there is a 35/36 chance that it was not by chance (intentional, i.e. psychic powers/god)?

    Clearly not, but that's the equivalent mistake many religious people make when their crap team wins, someone recovers from cancer etc.

    The probability they actually should be concerned with is not simply the probability that event x *will* happen by chance (1/36), but rather the probability that it was by (or not by) chance *given that x has happened*. This is what the bayesian probability equation is for.

    P(H|E) = ( P(H) x P(E|H) )/P(E)

    P(H|E) is the probability of hypothesis H given evidence E.

    I'm too lazy to explain it fully as there must be many sites that do so and give a derivation, but E (the evidence) would be the unusual event(s) that has happened and H (the hypothesis) would be that God intervened (or alternatively you could have H be the hypothesis that god did not intervene i.e. pure chance is at work).

    One helpful note for understanding: P(E) = P(H) x P(E|H) + P(Not H) x (P(E|Not H)

    So Bayes' equation could be written as

    P(H|E)=

    P(H) x P(E|H)
    divided by
    P(H) x P(E|H) + P(Not H) x (P(E|Not H)

    In other words P(E), the probability that E will occur is the prior probability of H and of also E occuring given H + the prior probability that H is false but E occuring anyway. For a believer in the existance of miracles with the 2 dice rolls example and where H is goddidit, then

    P(E) would be, say, 0.001 x 1 + 0.999 x (1/36) = slightly more likely than 1/36 since it could either happen by chance or there is also another way for it to happen ... supernatural intervention (the 0.001 x 1 part).

    As you can see, to use bayesian probability you would have to postulate a probability for P(H) (or alternatively P(Not H) which is 1 - P(H) ) i.e. the prior probability without knowing E that god intervened. It should at least be a very low number since even believers would admit that miracles are by definition rare.

    Anyway, with these numbers where H is god intervened and P(H) is 0.001 (1 in a thousand, which is ridiculously generous but it's just for illustration),

    then P(H|E) = 0.0348 so about 3%, a lot lower than 35/36 anyway!

    ----------------

    Another interesting thing about Bayesian probability is that it can lead to counter-intuitive results, which might also explain why believers get the wrong idea.

    An example I read about once: A doctor tests a patient for an illness, I'll use some made up numbers:

    H = Patient has the illness; E=Positive test result

    P(H) = 0.01 This is the prior probability, regardless of evidence that the patient could be sick with the illness

    P(E|H) = 0.99 If they have the illness they will v. likely come up positive

    P(E|Not H) = 0.01 There's a slim chance the test could come up positive for a patient without the illness (note it's just a coincidence that I'm using a number which is 1 minus 0.99 here - doesn't have to be)

    P(E) = 0.01x0.99 + 0.99x0.01 = 0.0099 + 0.0099 = 0.0198

    So P(H|E) = 0.0099 / 0.0198 = 0.5

    Despite using a very sensitive test there's only a 50-50 chance the patient has the illness if they test positive! Basically because while the test rarely gives a false positive, the illness is also rare.
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #20 - July 01, 2012, 03:41 PM

    Every single thing has ever happened to anyone is an improbable event with astronomical odds, if you work them out restrospectively.

    to work out the probability of events already happened is pretty meaningless.

    There is a (basically) infinite chain of causes leading to every single event, even mundane ones, Reducing the probability of any specific thing happening to almost zero.
    And yet, things do happen, all the time - all day, every day.

    What is the probabilith that the people who have replied on this thread would be doing so? there are 7 billion people in the world. Did Allah bring us together?
    What was the probability that we would even have been born?
    One in 4 billion sperm that a man produces in his life time
    multiplied by one in 400 of ovums that a woman produces,
    multiplied by the probability that our parents even met, multiplied by the probability that they were born.

    It very quickly gets us to odds that are so high that a religious person might be fooled into beliveing that it was all meant to be, and the same is true for every single event you can imagine.

  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #21 - July 01, 2012, 03:44 PM

    Great post, by the way lighting striking one person 7 times though their life is calculated as 1:10000 to the power of 7. What is that number, what can it be compared to? any ideas?
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #22 - July 01, 2012, 03:48 PM

    You have to admit lighting striking you 7 (or more) at least 7 well documented times through your life is very unusual.

    Quote
    The first documented lightning strike of Sullivan occurred in April 1942. He was hiding from a thunderstorm in a fire lookout tower. The tower was newly built and had no lightning rod at the time; it was hit seven or eight times. Inside the tower, "fire was jumping all over the place." Sullivan ran out and just a few feet away received what he considered to be his worst lightning strike. It burned a half-inch strip all along his right leg, hit his toe, and left a hole in his shoe.

    The second bolt hit him in July 1969. Unusually, he was hit while in his truck, driving on a mountain road—the metal body of a vehicle normally protects people in cases such as this. The lightning first hit nearby trees and was deflected into the open window of the truck. The strike knocked Sullivan unconscious and burned off his eyebrows, eyelashes, and most of his hair. The uncontrolled truck kept moving until it stopped near a cliff edge.

    In 1970, Sullivan was struck while in his front yard. The lightning hit a nearby power transformer and from there jumped to his left shoulder, searing it.

    The fourth strike occurred in 1972, while Sullivan was working inside a ranger station in Shenandoah National Park. It set his hair on fire; he tried to smother the flames with his jacket. Then he rushed to the rest room, but couldn't fit under the water tap and so used a wet towel instead.

    Although he never was a fearful man, after the fourth strike he began to believe that some force was trying to destroy him and he acquired a fear of death. For months, whenever he was caught in a storm while driving his truck, he would pull over and lie down on the front seat until the storm passed. He also began to carry a can of water with him and believed that he would somehow attract lightning even if he stood in a crowd of people.

    On August 7, 1973, while he was out on patrol in the park, Sullivan saw a storm cloud forming and drove away quickly. But the cloud, he said later, seemed to be following him. When he finally thought he had outrun it, he decided it was safe to leave his truck. Soon after, he was struck by a lightning bolt. Sullivan stated that he actually saw the bolt that hit him. The lightning set his hair on fire, moved down his left arm and left leg and knocked off his shoe, although it did not untie the lace. It then crossed over to his right leg just below the knee. Still conscious, Sullivan crawled to his truck and poured the can of water, which he always kept there, over his head.

    On June 5, 1976, Sullivan was struck by the sixth bolt, injuring his ankle. It was reported that he saw a cloud, thought that it was following him, tried to run away, but was struck anyway.

    On Saturday morning, June 25, 1977, Sullivan was fishing in a freshwater pool when he was struck the seventh time. The lightning hit the top of his head, singeing his hair, and traveled down burning his chest and stomach. Sullivan turned to his car and then another unexpected thing happened—a bear appeared and tried to steal trout from his fishing line. Sullivan had the strength and courage to strike the bear with a tree branch. He claimed that this was the twenty-second time he hit a bear with a stick in his lifetime.[4]

    All seven strikes were documented by the superintendent of Shenandoah National Park, R. Taylor Hoskins, and were verified by doctors. Sullivan himself recalled that the first time he was struck by lightning was not in 1942 but much earlier. When he was a child, he was helping his father to cut wheat in a field, when a thunderbolt struck the blade of his scythe without injuring him. Because he could not prove the fact later, he never claimed it.

    Sullivan's wife was also struck once, when a storm suddenly arrived as she was out hanging clothes in their back yard. Her husband was helping her at the time, but escaped unharmed.

     - wiki
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #23 - July 01, 2012, 03:53 PM

    yes it is unusual. But it would be MUCH more strange if unusual things did not happen
  • Re: Coincidence Probability calculations
     Reply #24 - July 01, 2012, 04:03 PM

    Every single thing has ever happened to anyone is an improbable event with astronomical odds, if you work them out restrospectively.


    Indeed (I also said similar thing in reply #15)

    Quote
    to work out the probability of events already happened is pretty meaningless.


    Not sure if that was in reference to my post, but that's not what I was saying (you need other inputs like the probability of a hypothesis being true to get something useful - if Bayes was useless nobody would use it)

    But even on its own, the probability of an unlikely event e.g. getting heads 20 times is essentially what's used by scientists all the time. When the probability of their results is below some arbitrary threshold they say it is significant. Other random combinations with 10 heads and 10 tails etc. are just as improbable, but it's the theorized cause and predicted outcome that makes the result count as evidence that the theory is correct.

    Like as you said about lightning strikes, we can also expect there to be many cases where their unusual results are pure chance (I sort of discussed that in reply 11).
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