The 'Chance' argument : Refuted in 5 easy steps.

1« Previous thread | Next thread »
- mighty_cats
- Pub Regular
- offline
The 'Chance' argument : Refuted in 5 easy steps.
OP - September 04, 2011, 08:17 PM
- Skeptic
- Ex-Muslim
- offline
Re: The 'Chance' argument : Refuted in 5 easy steps.
Reply #1 - September 04, 2011, 08:35 PM

Nice way to put it. I remember reading some similer comment on the video "beating astronomical odds".

very well put. You should make a blog ad list these all these little arguments there.

Lost somewhere between immensity and eternity is our tiny planetary home. [carl sagan]
- dr_sloth
- Pub Regular
- Orthodox Atheist
- offline
Re: The 'Chance' argument : Refuted in 5 easy steps.
Reply #2 - September 06, 2011, 11:49 AM

would be better with the actual probabilities.

even just getting the first card is 1 in 52.
getting the first and second (whatever they are) is 1 in 52 X 51
the whole thing is 1 in 52 x 51 x 50 x 49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44..........x 3 x 2

1 in 80658200000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

i think the argument is the texas sharpshooter fallacy, where you draw the target around the bullet after you have fired it

Assigning probabilistic significance to an event already happened (wherever your bullet lands/whatever order the cards are in/however life or the universe i is arranged) is meaningless.

mundane events with astronomical probabilities happen all day, every day.
- Gladfly
- The Lord of the Flies
- Pub Regular
- Be Happy. Be very very Happy
- offline
Re: The 'Chance' argument : Refuted in 5 easy steps.
Reply #3 - September 06, 2011, 02:57 PM

Yes. Almost every apologist uses the chance argument as if it is the clincher - a full frontal punch in the nose kind of thing without ever understanding this in the context of biological evolution.

The Big dna molecule was not built up in one go! To claim it was is false!

Little Fly, Thy summer's play
My thoughtless hand has brushed away.

I too dance and drink, and sing,
Till some blind hand shall brush my wing.

Therefore I am a happy fly,
If I live or if I die.
1« Previous thread | Next thread »