UK Election 2015

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- musivore
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UK Election 2015
Reply #90 - May 08, 2015, 09:56 PM

Quote from: countjulian on May 08, 2015, 07:59 PM
As a (very lefty) Yank, I am speechless. After 20 years of neo-liberalism the British people chose to hand the Tories, who are already in power, a crushing victory??? Do people over there want the UK to become like the US, no public services, private health care, crushing debt, no government support, all-out tyranny but the ruling classes? What exactly made so many common people over the vote conservative? I am stunned.

A few factors conspired to create the perfect tw@t of a storm, in my opinion:
1) The leader of the Labour opposition was weak. Not a natural leader, he was almost unelectable. His chosen chancellor, and his team in general, weren't much better.
2) The rise of Scottish nationalism wiped out the significant, usually loyal, Scottish vote. This rise came about because of last year's Scottish referendum, which galvanised and united the nationalist half of the country. The unionist vote however, remained split between the other main parties, which equates to a landslide for the nationalists because of our first-past-the-post voting system.
3) Opinion polls for months had warned of the impending doom of (2) above. Meanwhile (1) meant that the opposition would not be able to capitalise fully against a government that was unpopular (and one that had even unprecedentedly left households poorer after five years of rule). This all meant that the opinion polls pointed to a hung parliament, where Labour's only realistic chance of forming a government would be to form an alliance with the 'poisonous' Scottish nationalists. The Tory campaign, along with the significant Tory press, focused on the prospect of this alliance. They scared the shit out of waverers, out of liberals, and out of people considering a switch to the loonier and more right-wing Ukip, warning of apocalypse for the UK.
4) The scare tactics worked. The expected swing in marginal seats did not occur for Labour. The Liberal Democrat vote collapsed in most of their seats, and the Tories nearly always were the ones who swept this up. What's more, the expected dent in Tory votes from Ukip did not materialise in key seats.

All of this meant that defeat belonged to the country, and victory to the few.

Hope some of the babble makes sense. I just need to vent mate.

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- Lilyesque
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Reply #91 - May 08, 2015, 10:10 PM

I know what you mean musivore. Identity politics on the left has secured victory of the right without brakes, due to the SNP whitwash of Labour in Scotland. Fear of this has led to Tory vote increase, wiping the LibDems out.

This will not help anybody! I'm sure the Tories will try to hammer the SNP and thus the Scots in Parliament, either by giving fiscal autonomy and them failing or by blocking them. Thus leads to break up of union and a Tory domination in the south and a pretty much one party state north of the border.

Add in the EU referendum stuff and it has me very worried!
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Reply #92 - May 08, 2015, 10:27 PM

Thanks, wish I could have written it as succinctly

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- Rob
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Reply #93 - May 08, 2015, 10:28 PM

Quote from: musivore on May 08, 2015, 09:56 PM
A few factors conspired to create the perfect tw@t of a storm, in my opinion:
1) The leader of the Labour opposition was weak. Not a natural leader, he was almost unelectable. His chosen chancellor, and his team in general, weren't much better.
2) The rise of Scottish nationalism wiped out the significant, usually loyal, Scottish vote. This rise came about because of last year's Scottish referendum, which galvanised and united the nationalist half of the country. The unionist vote however, remained split between the other main parties, which equates to a landslide for the nationalists because of our first-past-the-post voting system.
3) Opinion polls for months had warned of the impending doom of (2) above. Meanwhile (1) meant that the opposition would not be able to capitalise fully against a government that was unpopular (and one that had even unprecedentedly left households poorer after five years of rule). This all meant that the opinion polls pointed to a hung parliament, where Labour's only realistic chance of forming a government would be to form an alliance with the 'poisonous' Scottish nationalists. The Tory campaign, along with the significant Tory press, focused on the prospect of this alliance. They scared the shit out of waverers, out of liberals, and out of people considering a switch to the loonier and more right-wing Ukip, warning of apocalypse for the UK.
4) The scare tactics worked. The expected swing in marginal seats did not occur for Labour. The Liberal Democrat vote collapsed in most of their seats, and the Tories nearly always were the ones who swept this up. What's more, the expected dent in Tory votes from Ukip did not materialise in key seats.

All of this meant that defeat belonged to the country, and victory to the few.

Hope some of the babble makes sense. I just need to vent mate.

I, personally, don't much care about which party governs us. What bothers me is that the government we have represents the vote of the people. This government, more than most, has no legitimacy. 37% of the people that voted gave us more than 50% of the representatives. As I said previously, it could be (I can't find any figures) that 6.5 million out of a population of 60 million have returned a Conservative majority government. How is this in any way acceptable? That's probably a lower percentage than voted for Robert Mugabe.
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Reply #94 - May 08, 2015, 10:39 PM

We've tried changing things. I think people struggled to understand what they didn't want to change.

That boat has sailed for now?

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Reply #95 - May 08, 2015, 11:02 PM

Relax, folks. My adopted country Japan has a far, far, far worse government than the UK will likely ever have.

The economic end is nigh. The national debt makes Greece's look insignificant. Reform, any reform AT ALL, is blocked by a corrupt, incestuous cabal of politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen. Life is barely possible outside the cabal. Work is poorly paid and increasingly insecure. Nationalist revisionism is on the rise. The constitution is to be re-written to make an already subservient people the legal serfs of the state. Even the most modest free speech is ruthlessly suppressed by the government and their allied gangs of bullies. Genuine poverty is everywhere. When I left my recycling out in the UK, the cans and cardboard weren't immediately snaffled by a potless codger who wanted to make a couple of yen.

I am optimistic. Hit the bottom, rip it up, and start again.
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Reply #96 - May 08, 2015, 11:15 PM

Quote from: musivore on May 08, 2015, 10:39 PM
We've tried changing things. I think people struggled to understand what they didn't want to change.

That boat has sailed for now?

Sailed forever I should imagine. Doesn't mean I can't complain about it.
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Reply #97 - May 08, 2015, 11:19 PM

Gutted that the conservatives won. But I guess deep down we all knew that they would back when Ed Miliband beat his brother to the leadership. You never could quite imagine him as PM, and yesterday showed that most of the people in the UK thought the same.

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Reply #98 - May 09, 2015, 03:11 AM

Quote from: GodIsNotGreat on May 08, 2015, 11:19 PM
Gutted that the conservatives won. ...........

GNG..... I just don't care who wins but what I care is elections at regular intervals and elected government giving protection to "freedom of expression" .. off course some rules such as rule of US of A "No single person is eligible to become a presidento of America more than 2 terms. Actually that rule should be adopted even to members of Parliament with max may be three time.
Quote from: Rob on May 08, 2015, 03:58 PM
Yeez, you're pretty vocal about how much in favour of democracy you are. How democratic does this look...
Conservative (36.7% of votes cast) = 326 seats.
Labour (30.5% of votes cast) = 231 seats.
Liberal Democrats (7.8% of votes cast) = 8 seats
UK Independence Party (12.7% of votes cast) = 1 seat
Scottish National Party (4.8% of votes cast) = 56 seats
Green Party (3.8% of votes cast) = 1 seat
Plaid Cymru - Wales Independence Party (0.6% of votes cast) = 3 seats
"Others" - Sinn Fein, DUP, etc (2.5% of votes cast) = 19 seats

Some graphics & narrative here:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/05/britain-s-election-2015-seats-votes-calculator

Rob you are right I am and I support freedom of expression, free elections at regular intervals .. If not elections what other form of government would you like to have Rob??

In fact I kind of like this one from England Look at this news

Yasmin Qureshi of the Labour Party was elected with 20,520 votes from Bolton South East.

Quote
Naz Shah, a 41-year-old disability rights campaigner who beat out her colourful left-wing rival nicknamed “Gorgeous George” Galloway in Bradford West, has an incredible life story of her own. She was brought up in poverty, taken to Pakistan to escape domestic abuse and then forcibly married. Shah's mother ended up killing her abusive partner and going to jail after long suffering in silence.

see that.. so yes I do like elections. Worst in elections is SCOUNDRELS NOT VOTING NOT PARTICIPATING IN ELECTIONS. I say lazy buggers should be jailed and fined if they do not participate in elections.

And.. and I tell you this to you and to all AMRIKANOS... without elections and without protecting freedom of expression Mr. Barack Hussein Obama could have NEVER IMAGINED to become 44th president of the most powerful state on this little planet.

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Reply #99 - May 09, 2015, 07:04 AM

Not everything about the first past the post system is bad. Ms Qureshi is exactly the kind of person that should be in parliament. It's a shame that most MPs are just nodding heads though.
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Reply #100 - May 09, 2015, 07:39 AM

Quote from: Rob on May 08, 2015, 03:37 PM
It's the first past the post system. Sometimes the Liberals do well because people vote for them in order to keep one of Tories/Labour out of government in their constituency "tactical voting". Sometimes they get squeezed because someone else gets the protest vote (UKIP?). In this election people were afraid of a Labour minority government backed by the Scottish National Party so they went with conservative. The leader of the Labour party (Miliband) is entirely lacking in charisma and has a risible personality. If Labour had a competent leader they would have won easily (a lot of people that were afraid of the SNP would have been pretty happy with a Labour majority government).

That makes sense. Thanks for explaining.
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Reply #101 - May 09, 2015, 07:58 AM

Quote from: Rob on May 09, 2015, 07:04 AM
Not everything about the first past the post system is bad. Ms Qureshi is exactly the kind of person that should be in parliament. It's a shame that most MPs are just nodding heads though.

...other than the fact that FPTP is unfair and unrepresetative of how the public actually voted.

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Reply #102 - May 09, 2015, 08:06 AM

Conservative (36.7% of votes cast) = 326 seats.
Labour (30.5% of votes cast) = 231 seats.
Liberal Democrats (7.8% of votes cast) = 8 seats
UK Independence Party (12.7% of votes cast) = 1 seat
Scottish National Party (4.8% of votes cast) = 56 seats
Green Party (3.8% of votes cast) = 1 seat
Plaid Cymru - Wales Independence Party (0.6% of votes cast) = 3 seats
"Others" - Sinn Fein, DUP, etc (2.5% of votes cast) = 19 seats

Even with direct vote, you would end up with a Conservative government, except one in a coalition with UKIP and the DUP. All the left parties combined make less than 50%. Con+UKIP+DUP would make just over 50%.
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Reply #103 - May 09, 2015, 09:02 AM

It's not just about the percentage of votes, it's the seats allocated that are more important as that determines who governs.

No free mixing of the sexes is permitted on these forums or via PM or the various chat groups that are operating.

Women must write modestly and all men must lower their case.

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Reply #104 - May 09, 2015, 11:31 AM

Quote from: Rob on May 09, 2015, 07:04 AM
Not everything about the first past the post system is bad. Ms Qureshi is exactly the kind of person that should be in parliament. It's a shame that most MPs are just nodding heads though.

well the point from me was and is., "when people have elections coupled to freedom of expression that must be protected by the elected govt(such as 1st amendment of US of A) then things will progressively get better and better for the society..

Off as that Churchill said “Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.” ... I say he is right.

Quote from: Jedi on May 09, 2015, 09:02 AM
It's not just about the percentage of votes, it's the seats allocated that are more important as that determines who governs.

what does that mean? What is that seat allocation business? who allocates the seats?

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Reply #105 - May 09, 2015, 12:23 PM

Quote from: Descent on May 07, 2015, 08:55 PM
I feel there is a stark difference with elections in America and Britain. In America, I feel it's very oriented towards the individual leaders, with the likes of Hillary or Obama rallying support around themselves. In UK It's more party-oriented historically representing different classes (although it's quite changed now), with Labour historically representing the working class and Conservatives being middle and upper-class. I think Cameron, Bennett, Milliband are rather uncharismatic but it wouldn't matter as much in the UK vs. US.

Oops, could've responded to this. But actually, even though it may look like that here, it's very often the case that the individual leaders aren't that big of a deal and people do tend to vote for the same party every time. A great deal of Republicans are middle-class to wealthy, or anyone of any financial backround who has socially conservative interests that will find them always opposing the "slow degradation of American values" (we're talking abortion laws, gay marriage, immigration reform, et cetera). People with low income without the social conservatism tend to vote Democrat and, by a large margin, racial/ethnic minorities are Democrats, which has led in the past (lookin' at you, Jeb Bush) and still leads to some seriously shady attempts to make it difficult for minorities to vote on election days.

When each party is deciding their primary candidate, the intention is typically to find one of your guys who has the best chance of beating the other party's guy. But it's true that if there's something exceptional about candidates themselves, there are swing votes to be had. My grandmother is a good example, who, god bless her, despite being born and raised in Kentucky, was always rather socially liberal and is an atheist and has always voted Democrat and encouraged us to do the same. But in 2008 during the campaign, Michelle Obama said something at a speech like, "For the first time in my adult life, I'm proud of my country," and my grandmother, who has seen the country go through a lot and who rather likes it, was so furious that she decided that this time she was going to vote for the other guy. But then John McCain selected Sarah Palin as his VP candidate, and that steered my grandmother right back in the other direction, and she voted for Obama anyway.
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Reply #106 - May 09, 2015, 12:38 PM

Quote from: Jedi on May 09, 2015, 09:02 AM
It's not just about the percentage of votes, it's the seats allocated that are more important as that determines who governs.

Many of the wealthiest constituencies (and by virtue, the most important) voted Conservatives. I believe 7 of the 10 wealthiest constituencies in London voted conservative.

No matter how you look at it, the conservatives win.
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Reply #107 - May 09, 2015, 03:55 PM

Quote from: Jedi on May 08, 2015, 05:43 AM
There's no such thing as a perfect party or half-perfect party. You go with the lesser fo two evils.

Tories then?

`But I don't want to go among mad people,' Alice remarked.
`Oh, you can't help that,' said the Cat: `we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad.'
`How do you know I'm mad?' said Alice.
`You must be,' said the Cat, `or you wouldn't have come here.'
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Reply #108 - May 09, 2015, 04:26 PM

Quote from: Descent on May 09, 2015, 12:38 PM
Many of the wealthiest constituencies (and by virtue, the most important) voted Conservatives. I believe 7 of the 10 wealthiest constituencies in London voted conservative.

No matter how you look at it, the conservatives win.

Please explain how what you've written relates in ayway to my post?

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Reply #109 - May 09, 2015, 04:28 PM

Quote from: Quod Sum Eris on May 09, 2015, 03:55 PM
Tories then?

Given that I voted Labour...no.

I just hope that the Conservative majority vote no to a potential EU referendum. However, because DC has a small majority the whips and bankbenchers have the real power.

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Reply #110 - May 09, 2015, 04:38 PM

I'd say tories are the lesser evil for the simple reason that Labour fucked people over again and again. The laws they brought in were perverse, they outright lied about how much debt they'd created, etc. I hate how the tories have fucked over lower income people especially with their bedroom tax and their fucking over of the disabled, but even I have to admit, more people are in work now than the past however many years, more jobs have been created, and they managed to sort out the financial mess labour left them.

Labour seemed intent on making the pound worthless and driving wealth away. Tories brought it back and even pushed it up. Just look at the exchange rates and stock markets when Cameron won.

`But I don't want to go among mad people,' Alice remarked.
`Oh, you can't help that,' said the Cat: `we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad.'
`How do you know I'm mad?' said Alice.
`You must be,' said the Cat, `or you wouldn't have come here.'
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Reply #111 - May 09, 2015, 07:11 PM

With all due respect...the economic upturn is not unique to the UK. The economy is getting better but not because of Tory policy but in spite of it. Following 2007/08 the economy would have plummeted irrespective of which government was in power.

You want to talk about debt - the deficit we are under is HUGE. A collosal weight which Milliband said he'd fix. You want to talk about fucking people over? What about the NHS being increasingly privatised, or free schools under the Conservatives which are a disastrous experiment, or a foreign policy that does not do enough to condemn Israeli foreign policy (even Warsi resigned partially on account of this) or prevent the Military Industrial Complex from capitalising more and more from war, or how the exam structure/criteria is again being changed for no valid reason wahtsoever, that there are massive cuts to the emergency services, or that the North has yet benefit from the 'economic boom' that the Conservatives promised relating to the North/South divide, Zero-hour contracts and pathetic slave labour renamed as apprenticeships, avoiding firm action taken on large bonuses and tax havens for bankers/super-rich/corporations (which Miliband pulled him up on on every occassion - even Nigel called Cameron out on this) or that lobby and special interest groups continue to shape and develop Tory policies.

Simpler still consider this: (In the leaders debate) The likes of Greens, SNP, WNP, Labour said FUCK OFF to even the remote possibility of working (coalition) with a Tory government whereas the Tories only found an ally with UKIP. That should tell you something about the nature of Tory ideology and policy. When common folk lament that the Conservatives care more for the rich they're not jesting at all!

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Women must write modestly and all men must lower their case.

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Reply #112 - May 09, 2015, 07:21 PM

Quote from: Jedi on May 09, 2015, 07:11 PM
With all due respect...the economic upturn is not unique to the UK. The economy is getting better but not because of Tory policy but in spite of it. Following 2007/08 the economy would have plummeted irrespective of which government was in power.

You want to talk about debt - the deficit we are under is HUGE. A collosal weight which Milliband said he'd fix. You want to talk about fucking people over? What about the NHS being increasingly privatised, or free schools under the Conservatives which are a disastrous experiment, or a foreign policy that does not do enough to condemn Israeli foreign policy (even Warsi resigned partially on account of this) or prevent the Military Industrial Complex from capitalising more and more from war, or how the exam structure/criteria is again being changed for no valid reason wahtsoever, that there are massive cuts to the emergency services, or that the North has yet benefit from the 'economic boom' that the Conservatives promised relating to the North/South divide, Zero-hour contracts and pathetic slave labour renamed as apprenticeships, avoiding firm action taken on large bonuses and tax havens for bankers/super-rich/corporations (which Miliband pulled him up on on every occassion - even Nigel called Cameron out on this) or that lobby and special interest groups continue to shape and develop Tory policies.

Simpler still consider this: (In the leaders debate) The likes of Greens, SNP, WNP, Labour said FUCK OFF to even the remote possibility of working (coalition) with a Tory government whereas the Tories only found an ally with UKIP. That should tell you something about the nature of Tory ideology and policy. When common folk lament that the Conservatives care more for the rich they're not jesting at all!

To be fair Labour started off the privatisation with PFIs and stuff, in schools too. Its simply the case that the state either cannot afford all the NHS offers, or need to increase tax. Given people don't want to pay more tax I vote for non-urgent stuff to be taken off NHS, stuff like IVF, etc.
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Reply #113 - May 09, 2015, 07:30 PM

For those of you who are blaming SNP voters for the Tory win - there are only 59 seats in Scotland, and the Labour party lost by more than 100 seats. It wouldn't have made any difference if every single Scot had voted Labour, you would still have a Tory government.

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Reply #114 - May 09, 2015, 08:57 PM

Question to all of you guys who voted/participated/campaigned in these elections..

Did Mullah Islam/Baboon Islam /Islamophobia of certain groups in UK ... did it effect the election results?

Or did that The UK govt not joining / no plans to adopt that euro, or to replace its currency did it effect the poll results?

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Reply #115 - May 09, 2015, 11:41 PM

Well Ed promised to make islamophobia illegal. Not sure what more he'd do with the current hate laws, didn't make any similar pledges to other groups that I'm aware of.

`But I don't want to go among mad people,' Alice remarked.
`Oh, you can't help that,' said the Cat: `we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad.'
`How do you know I'm mad?' said Alice.
`You must be,' said the Cat, `or you wouldn't have come here.'
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Reply #116 - May 09, 2015, 11:43 PM

Quote from: Jedi on May 09, 2015, 07:58 AM
...other than the fact that FPTP is unfair and unrepresetative of how the public actually voted.

Quote from: Cheetah on May 09, 2015, 07:30 PM
For those of you who are blaming SNP voters for the Tory win - there are only 59 seats in Scotland, and the Labour party lost by more than 100 seats. It wouldn't have made any difference if every single Scot had voted Labour, you would still have a Tory government.

I live in Scotland in a safe SNP constituency. I don't blame anyone but it is a fact that many people in England voted Tory because they didn't want a Labour minority government supported by the SNP. (i.e. if Labour had looked like winning lots of seats in Scotland, more people in England would have voted Labour). This was a masterstroke of election campaigning by Cameron (the same person that helped persuade Scottish people to stay within the UK because they would have a voice or some such). The SNP want Scotland out of the union so they aren't giving a stuff, they're waiting for a game changing moment that will give them an opportunity to call another referendum on UK membership. The SNP representatives in Westminster are going to be there to ensure promises on devolved Government made by Cameron before that referendum are kept and they are led by Alex Salmond, who is more than capable of making life difficult for Cameron.
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Reply #117 - May 09, 2015, 11:45 PM

Quote from: yeezevee on May 09, 2015, 08:57 PM
Question to all of you guys who voted/participated/campaigned in these elections..

Did Mullah Islam/Baboon Islam /Islamophobia of certain groups in UK ... did it effect the election results?

Or did that The UK govt not joining / no plans to adopt that euro, or to replace its currency did it effect the poll results?

No to all that I think.
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Reply #118 - May 09, 2015, 11:48 PM

If people in England didn't want a minority Labour government supported by the SNP they could have voted Labour in large enough numbers to give them an overall majority in the House of Commons. The English electorate eschewed that option and opted for a Tory government instead. Those who are blaming Scotland, or the SNP, are barking up the wrong tree.

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Reply #119 - May 10, 2015, 12:08 AM

The English voters could have done several things. The fact is they didn't. They chose to do the thing that they did.

Are you denying that the Conservative election campaign, with their media allies (The Sun, The Times, The Express, The Daily Mail, The Daily Telegraph) used scare tactics in order to demonize the SNP and frighten potential Labour voters into changing their vote? If you are denying this the evidence is still available, do some digging. If you're not, what is your point?
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