Elections in Turkey

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Elections in Turkey
OP - June 07, 2015, 05:34 PM

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33042284
Quote
Turkey's governing AK party appears on course to lose its parliamentary majority, early projections suggest.

They also suggest the pro-Kurdish HDP is set to cross the 10% threshold, securing seats for the first time.

With more than two-thirds of the vote counted, the AKP had 43.6% of the vote, according to Turkish TV stations.

If confirmed, the result would end the AKP's 13-year single-party rule, and upset President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's plans to boost his office's powers.

President Erdogan, who first came to power as prime minister in 2003, has been seeking a two-thirds majority to turn Turkey into a presidential republic.
....
According to the TV projections, Mr Erdogan's Justice and Development Party's share of the vote would translate into 267 seats in the 550-seat parliament, followed by the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). The pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) would get 74 seats.
....

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Reply #1 - June 07, 2015, 05:41 PM

Zeynep Tufekci on Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/zeynep

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Reply #2 - June 07, 2015, 06:13 PM

Live updates: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/live-polls-close-in-turkeys-crucial-general-elections.aspx?pageID=238&nID=83585&NewsCatID=338

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Reply #3 - June 07, 2015, 06:54 PM

I'm quite pleased with these results.

How does everyone else feel?

"In a child's power to master the multiplication table, there is more sanctity than in all your shouted "amens" and "holy holies" and "hosannas." An idea is a greater monument than a cathedral. And the advance of man's knowledge is a greater miracle than all the sticks" - Henry Drummond
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Reply #4 - June 07, 2015, 08:12 PM

Erdogan was aiming to get enough support to be able to change the constitution - the results should prevent that.

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Reply #5 - June 07, 2015, 08:32 PM

Interesting things to watch as the pro kurdish party HDP enters a coalition government, will Turkey join the war in Syria or give more support to kurdish groups.? Will Turkey continue to support Free Syrian Army?
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Reply #6 - June 07, 2015, 08:43 PM

^The HDP have ruled out supporting an AKP government.
Quote from: Hurriyet
10:05 p.m. - "I wholeheartedly congratulate everyone," HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtaş tells journalists in his first post-election speech, stressing the "unfairness" of campaign stemming from the AKP's use of "all the state's powers." Describing the result as a "magnificent victory," Demirtaş said all people who are for freedoms, all the oppressed, all workers, all women and all minorities, had won together. "It is a joint victory of the left," he added, slamming the ruling AKP's "arrogance." "We know that some votes cast for us were entrusted [by supporters of other parties]. We will try to turn these temporary votes into permanent ones," he said. Perhaps most importantly, Demirtaş rules out any kind of support to a new AKP government.

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Reply #7 - June 07, 2015, 10:00 PM

Ah, good. I've been keeping an eye on the Turkish elections and was hoping for this sort of result.
Giving Erdogan a chance to turn himself into Lord High Everything Forever would have been a real fuck-up.

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Reply #8 - June 07, 2015, 10:48 PM

HDP press conference: http://www.agos.com.tr/en/article/11821/hdp-is-now-truly-a-party-of-the-whole-of-turkey

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Reply #9 - June 07, 2015, 11:06 PM

So what's likely to happen now? The AKP in coalition with the MHP doesn't exactly sound like a bunch of fluffy bunnies.

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Reply #10 - June 07, 2015, 11:28 PM

^Hurriyet's take on it: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/coalition-or-minority-govt-whats-next-in-turkish-politics.aspx?PageID=238&NID=83624&NewsCatID=429
Quote
....
Another area of uncertainty is the composition of the next government. In line with Turkish laws and custom, President Erdoğan has to invite AKP chair Ahmet Davutoğlu to the presidential palace to give him the mandate to form the government. The next government has to be formed within 45 days after the mandate is given and in the event of a failure, the Supreme Election Board (YSK) will announce early elections in two months.

Therefore, a very critical period of 45 days will await us in which the ruling party has to conduct tough negotiations with a potential partner. Among the three oppositional parties, the AKP’s likely partner seems to be the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). Both the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) have already declared that they won’t enter any partnership with the AKP in the government.

In this regard, Davutoğlu could launch a negotiation process with MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, but a coalition protocol will not be easy given the latter’s strong opposition to Erdoğan’s interventions in governmental affairs. For example, it would be a huge concession on Bahçeli’s part if he agrees to go to the grandiose presidential palace to attend a cabinet meeting under Erdoğan’s leadership.

One option is that the MHP could support a minority government to be formed by the AKP on strict conditions and with the prospect of taking the country to early polls.

One very important risk the AKP and Erdoğan could face is the possibility that a large coalition between the CHP, MHP and HDP could be formed on certain conditions and with the purpose of undermining Erdoğan’s position. This large coalition would later take the country to polls with, for example, a reduced election threshold and other legal amendments for the further normalization of the country.

That’s why early polls under the AKP government would be seen as a better option for Davutoğlu and Erdoğan.

Having mentioned all of these aspects, one still needs to see the next steps for Erdoğan, who has already proven that he won’t be a usual head of the nation. In full disappointment at the results of the election, in whose campaign he was personally involved in election rallies at the expense of violating the constitution, Erdoğan’s road map is still unknown.

At the end of the day, it will be Erdoğan who will decide whether to begin an era of political chaos and instability or to aid the normalization of Turkish politics by abandoning his political ambitions and leaving those democratically elected political leaders free in their will to form the next government.

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Reply #11 - June 07, 2015, 11:36 PM

Erdogan earlier this year

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Reply #12 - June 07, 2015, 11:38 PM

Sounds like a shitfight waiting to happen. Best bet would probably be a minority government, with support from other parties on a per-policy basis. That should keep the country ticking along, without granting too much power to the AKP.

ETA: Yes, I know Erdogan wants to be the new Emperor.

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Reply #13 - June 08, 2015, 01:54 PM

Alev Scott - At last, the Turkish awakening Erdogan could not crush

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/08/turkish-election-erdogan-gezi-park-turkey-opposition-coalition-akp

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Reply #14 - June 08, 2015, 10:43 PM

He can still crush it, if there is no political stability in the next few months. It's early days. In fact, you could argue that it would be in the AKP's interest for there to be no political stability, as long as they can convincingly blame it on others. If they can manage that, the next election might well return them to power.

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Reply #15 - June 08, 2015, 10:53 PM

^Indeed, it would be in AKPs interest to lose this election, especially as the economy is slowing down.Moreover Turkish stocks sank by 6% due to politcal instability.
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Reply #16 - June 08, 2015, 11:00 PM

The impression I'm getting is that not only do all the other parties hate the AKP's guts, they also hate each other's guts. A grand coalition of opposition parties seems about as likely as pigs flying backwards.

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Reply #17 - June 09, 2015, 12:00 AM

Well,the same thing happened to AKP and the Gulen movement. Another thing is infighting within AKP and that tension may increase within AKP.
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Reply #18 - June 10, 2015, 03:08 PM

Women and minorities in Parliament: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/06/09/uk-turkey-politics-diversity-idUKKBN0OP1ZE20150609

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