A very interesting discussion on this timeline:
https://mobile.twitter.com/arisroussinos/status/644636304622399488Other essentially unspoken risk is whether Turkey continues to slide into civil war, evolving from a facilitator of refugees, to a creator.
@arisroussinos The idea, mooted by both Syrian activists & NGOs, that Greece opens the land border is, basically, never going to happen.
@arisroussinos why so? Because of instability in Turkey?
@YiannisBab Which, civil war, or land border?
@arisroussinos land border
@YiannisBab EU's struggling with the middle classes who can afford to spend 1000s of $ and accept the risk of the sea crossing.
@arisroussinos and land border would open a route for everyone, I see what you're saying.
@YiannisBab Once Europe's a bus ticket away, literally millions will come. No European government will accept that.
@arisroussinos Turkey created this refugee crisis in a bid to have that safe zone in North Syria,happy with Kurds leaving the region
@arisroussinos And,force the West to accept the Turkey's demands re Syria.
@Dilxazsofi I'm inclined to agree. Turkey could stop the flow with less than 100 policemen, if they wanted to.
@Dilxazsofi Yes, I agree. Turkey could halt the flow in a day, if wished. Clearly, it doesn't want to.
@arisroussinos Yes this will never happen because if that border gets open, no one can close it again and million+ of migrants flows to GRE
@arisroussinos thats exactly why EU never allowed a single migrant 2get pass from TR border and thats why migrants gets drowned in the sea
@Tweets4Onur Yes, basically. If the land border opens, everyone in Syria will cross it.
@arisroussinos I dont know how EU threatens TR but it must be big because TR gov. doesnt even allow migrants 2reach Edirne,the border city
@arisroussinos About 1500+ migrants are on hunger strike for 3days by the highway leading to Edirne city,carrying banners;"No more drowning"
@Tweets4Onur TR/GR border at Evros is the most militarised in Europe. You can't even film it from the Greek side
Most of the migrants arrive on a handful of Greek beaches. Most leave from a handful of Turkish beaches. A few TK police could manage flow.
There's a lot of things Turkey could do: make everyone buying an outboard motor register it, then liaise with GR police, eg
I think Turkey's using current flow (derived from other causes) as a bargaining chip to induce Western Syria intervention, tbh
Hard to avoid conclusion few 100,000 living Syrians in Europe is stoking western intervention more than a few 100,000 dead Syrians in Syria
Topic: Greek island refugee crisis