Islamists re-emerge to assert authorityTWO years after being routed from Somalia's capital, an anti-Western Islamic movement is poised for a comeback in the besieged Horn of Africa nation.
Although the movement is divided by competing ideologies and goals, it has made many recent gains through a combination of brutal force and political dialogue.
The militant wing, Shabab, which claims affiliation to al-Qaeda, controls 90 per cent of southern Somalia, including parts of the capital, Mogadishu. The moderate faction signed a peace deal with Somalia's transitional government that could give it half the seats in Parliament.
Islamists who fled two years ago after their defeat to Ethiopian troops - who had crossed the border to prop up Somalia's failing government - are re-emerging to assert their authority, often imposing strict laws against dancing, drinking or conducting business during prayer time.
"They're back with a bang," said Rashid Abdi, Somalia analyst at the International Crisis Group, a think tank. "They control more territory now than they did in 2006."
With Ethiopia's recent threat to withdraw its troops, Islamist militias are positioned at Mogadishu's outskirts. They vow to take over if the transitional government recognised by the United Nations collapses once the Ethiopians leave.
"We are preparing to handle our freedom and once the enemy leaves the country, we will quickly stabilise the country," said Abdirahim Isse Adow, an Islamist spokesman.
The question is whether the Islamist movement can resolve the internal power struggles and conflicting visions that helped cause its downfall two years ago.
Far from the unified Islamic Courts Alliance that defeated US-backed warlords in 2006, today's Islamists have splintered into three groups. Shabab remains the muscle of the movement. The militia always attracted hardliners but two years of fighting a guerilla war against Ethiopians and enduring US missile strikes have further radicalised members. As they have recaptured southern Somalia cities, some Shabab leaders are imposing Taliban-style rules, killing humanitarian workers and terrorising women. In Kismayo, a 13-year-old rape victim was stoned to death after being accused of adultery by Shabab-installed local leaders.
The other main faction is working for reconciliation with the transitional government in a power-sharing agreement.
A third Islamist group is based in Asmara, falling somewhere between the other two. Rivalries are so bitter that last month fighting broke out south of Mogadishu among Islamist groups loyal to different sides. "They are embracing radically different policies," said Ken Menkhaus, a Somalia expert at North Carolina's Davidson College.
"The next fight in Somalia is going to be between the Islamists."Rest of article
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More lunatics wanting to turn Somalia into a total mess again. Now this is one country that could really benefit from a good dose of atheism.