Aging of Europe

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- Unechance
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Aging of Europe
OP - April 06, 2010, 07:38 AM

I thought this picture was pretty interesting, shows the growth or decline in fertility between Germany and France back in 2003, since then France's fertility has risen further...

- Red: Total fertility rate under 1.3.
- Pink: Total fertility rate between 1.31 and 1.40
- Orange: Total fertility rate between 1.41 and 1.50
- Yellow: Total fertility rate between 1.51 and 1.70
- Light green: Total fertility rate between 1.71 and 1.90
- Dark green: Total fertility rate between 1.91 and 2.10
- Very dark green: Total fertility rate above 2.10.

It makes you wonder how countries like Germany or Spain will cope in the future if they're facing problems like that where parents are having one kid. It will place a huge burden on the younger generation when there's a disproportionately high amount of elderly to care for.

Just wondering, do you see the aging of Europe as an issue or not?

Interesting fact; I read that the average life expectancy will be 106 years old by 2300. You'd think at some point over the next generation or two, governments would have to push up the age of retirement or something...
- DH
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Re: Aging of Europe
Reply #1 - April 06, 2010, 03:37 PM

Quote from: Unechance
It makes you wonder how countries like Germany or Spain will cope in the future if they're facing problems like that where parents are having one kid. It will place a huge burden on the younger generation when there's a disproportionately high amount of elderly to care for.

Fewer kids being born means fewer kids need to be provided for. Europeans are not eskimos where the capacity to support an elderly population is determined by the relative number of younger fish catchers and oldies are put out into the snow to die. The "demographic timebomb" fallacy demands that the human population of the earth expands indefinitely. This is clearly a stupid idea. Europe certainly does not need a constant influx of fanatical young Muslims from Afghanistan and elsewhere who think it is clever to have eight kids.

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Re: Aging of Europe
Reply #2 - April 06, 2010, 04:00 PM

Do you not think that there are negative consequences of the aging of Europe though?

Quote
As the ratio increases there may be an increased burden on the productive part of the population to maintain the upbringing and pensions of the economically dependent. This results in direct impacts on financial expenditures on things like social security, as well as many indirect consequences.

The Economic Policy Committee and the European Commission issued a report in 2006 estimating the working age population in the European Union will decrease by 48 million, 16%, between 2010 and 2050, while the elderly population will increase by 58 million, 77%.

Whilst it's hard to assume much from those statistics, if these statistics were true, do you not think that there would be more demands from the large elderly population for medical needs and care? Or that there will be more people claiming benefits like state pensions and less people working and paying income taxes? If the statistics are true, a 60 million person increase in senior pensioners and a 50 million person decrease in the workforce could be a problem. I tend to think that the aged are in an "eskimo" position as you said.

Of course, the answer many governments use to keep a healthy workforce is immigration, but I don't know if Europe is ready for further large-scale immigration. Imo, whether or not you choose to recognize it, there are going to be resulting social problems from dropping fertility rates...

Just F.Y.I, not being alarmist, in fact I think it's great that we're seeing population declines because I don't think the world needs more people; and it seems to be a universal trend, but I wonder if it is truly as much of an issue as a lot of experts say it is (I know it's pretty big here right now).
- Tlaloc
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Re: Aging of Europe
Reply #3 - April 06, 2010, 04:12 PM

I also think it's a logical fallacy.
It's as if people are scared of their population lowering.

More elders but less kids means the workers will have to take care of elders instead of kids, the opposite of what people did in the past...
Until the wave of elders dies off: then there will be more resources left for everyone, and they all can restart reproducing like rabbits and the cycle repeats.

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Re: Aging of Europe
Reply #4 - April 06, 2010, 04:13 PM

Compulsary euthanasia?

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Re: Aging of Europe
Reply #5 - April 06, 2010, 04:23 PM

^^Volunteer early to avoid disappointment.

Quote from: Tlaloc on April 06, 2010, 04:12 PM
More elders but less kids means the workers will have to take care of elders instead of kids, the opposite of what people did in the past...

But there are going to be fewer workers too. Probably with proportionally the same number of children as nowadays as well.
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Re: Aging of Europe
Reply #6 - April 06, 2010, 04:56 PM

Quote from: Kenan on April 06, 2010, 04:23 PM
But there are going to be fewer workers too. Probably with proportionally the same number of children as nowadays as well.

Why do you think the number of children will stay in the same proportion?
If less workers will have to take care of more elders, there will be even less resources to spare to grow kids, so people would reproduce even less than they do now.

If that were not the case... then why are people reproducing less, nowadays than, let's say, right after WW2?

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Re: Aging of Europe
Reply #7 - April 06, 2010, 05:10 PM

It's not necessarily a uni-linear trend.

And we already only need a small number of people to work to produce whatever is necessary, in two decades that will be about 3% of the population - so they say. Of course, a lot of shit may hit the fan by that point and the fact that I, or anyone else, under 30 won't have a state pension because they're phasing them out may be the least of our worries...

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Re: Aging of Europe
Reply #8 - April 06, 2010, 05:21 PM

Yeah that too... through technology, we might end up needing less and less people working to let the rest survive.
(in an ideal world ^_^)
(and if robots won't take over )

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Re: Aging of Europe
Reply #9 - April 06, 2010, 05:25 PM

Quote from: Tlaloc on April 06, 2010, 05:21 PM
Yeah that too... through technology, we might end up needing less and less people working to let the rest survive.
(in an ideal world ^_^)
(and if robots won't take over )

In an ideal world, why? Because: the rate of profit needs to be maintained! So capital can continue its destructive path.

We'll likely just become robotized... Either proletarian who have been reduced to machines which also buy stuff, or bourgeoisie who'll be some kind of ubermensch... well, that's my sci-fi prediction, anyway.

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Re: Aging of Europe
Reply #10 - April 08, 2010, 08:53 AM

The life expectancy is increasing all the time, and people are in better shape. There are more and more who keep on working in their late 60s and early 70s. I think this will increase even more in the future. Combine this with technological advances and I'm very optimistic!

According to some estimates, the world population will continue to increase until 2050, when it will hit approx. 9 billion, and then it will begin to stagnate. If this is true the challenges Europe (and Japan) face will be relevant everywhere. The other estimates predict that the population will increase until there is a shortage of food and water, and will subsequently come crashing down. Let's hope that doesn't happen.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#Forecast

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Re: Aging of Europe
Reply #11 - April 12, 2010, 09:58 PM

It is an issue now (hence the immigration policies) and will be a bigger one in the future in terms of economic output. Japan will be one of the first to be hit hard from what I've read. Best not to rely on a state pension in Europe. People will live longer and I think more people will retire later. There was an article on The Economist which stated what TheLastKnight wrote, though I don't recall the world population being limited due to resources, more that fertility rates world wide are falling as living standards improve, evening in parts of India.

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Re: Aging of Europe
Reply #12 - April 12, 2010, 10:43 PM

Quote from: Tlaloc on April 06, 2010, 04:12 PM
I also think it's a logical fallacy.
It's as if people are scared of their population lowering.

More elders but less kids means the workers will have to take care of elders instead of kids, the opposite of what people did in the past...
Until the wave of elders dies off: then there will be more resources left for everyone, and they all can restart reproducing like rabbits and the cycle repeats.

interesting way of looking at it

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