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Theme Changer

 Topic: The Fine Tuning Argument

 (Read 13275 times)
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  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #90 - April 18, 2011, 01:29 AM

    From what I can tell the only relavant argument here is the fact that we have a sample size of one i.e. our own universe - and that is enough to stop the 'fine tuning argument' in its tracks.

    Well, yes and no.

    That was indeed my initial argument, and I still think it is perhaps the most obvious killer. As I said way back in the thread, the fine tuning argument is a mathematical argument that has been co-opted for philosophical purposes (actually I'd be more inclined to say it has been co-opted for the purposes of sophistry). Essentially, the fine tuning argument attempts to take the least possible number of actual events (one) and attempt to claim that the result of this event is statistically significant. That is such a laughably idiotic way to approach any probabillity-related question that I really do think anyone who wants to talk about the fine tuning argument should fully comprehend this objection.

    Since this objection meant that the fine tuning argument was clearly pushing up daisies and smelling decidedly whiffy, I had never bothered to think the argument through in greater depth. It just didn't seem worth the effort. As a result of trying to explain things in this thread I have been forced to think in more detail, which is why the post you quoted contained a second point:

    Quote from: Me
    You should also bear in mind that, even for a vast array of hypothetical universes that do not support life, the probability of any one constant being precisely what it happens to be in that unverse is still going to be vanishingly small. The fact that it does not support life does not change this, so in a very real sense we can say that it would be just as unlikely as our universe anyway. This is a separate point to the sample size problem. The sample size problem alone is enough to kill fine tuning, but say you have half a dozen universal constants in every possible universe. Each one of those can potentially take a range of values that is presumably infinite, in the absence of anything suggesting otherwise. This means that for any and all possible universes, the probability of the constants being precisely what they are is not obviously going to be any higher than the probablity of constants in our universe having the exact values they have.

    This is equally damning. It skewers the basic premise of the fine tuning argument even before you consider the actual sample size available.


    Quote
    Os - you are quite happy to leave it there and that's totally understandable given the fact that we cannot and may not ever be able to make any observations outside our own universe. But this itself is problematic from a scientific point of veiw - if we can't ever know if there are any universes that exist other than our own, how sensible really is it to use these ideas in a discussion about science? (not a straightforward question to answer IMO).

    Proobably not very, but that isn't really the point is it? The point is more that some people think that our universe's array of constants indicates a deity, and their feeling that this is the case is based on their flawed understanding of how probability works.

    Devious, treacherous, murderous, neanderthal, sub-human of the West. bunny
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #91 - April 18, 2011, 05:47 AM



    Ok, how the Hell did he think the argument of fine-tuning is an atheistic argument? he admits that there are 2 opinions:

    1- One physicist argues the universe can only be the way it is: no randomness.
    2- Even the multiverse version, basically says it is highly improbable for different versions to last for too long.

    In other words, let's say there's a universe generator, generating universes at random, then the possible outcomes are NOT equiprobable at all, but rather heavily skewed in favor of our universe (and a tiny minority of universes like it).

    A googolplex is *precisely* as far from infinity as is the number 1.--Carl Sagan
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #92 - April 18, 2011, 10:42 AM

    The chances of choosing any random configuration and choosing a pre-defined configuration is exactly the same.


    On second thoughts... the chances of choosing a non-significant value from a load of insignificant values is well... 1 in 1.

    I think the earlier examples of 600 billion to 1 odds and certain card configurations and surveys and what-not may be irrelevant (assuming that the argument from fine-tuning isn't meant to be proof of  god's existence). Sure we can randomnly pick a configuration out of a possible 600 billion that are equally as likely and show that events of great odds are possible, but any of those configurations would have fit the purpose, so the outcome (that a 600 billion-to-1 event will take place) is already certain. If however you pre-define a configuration, then choosing that particular configuration would be a 'holy crap' moment.  There is nothing making it impossible of course, but I'm assuming if a physicist puts forward the argument he does it with the knowledge that it's not proof that god is necessary - any simpleton can tell you a minute chance is still a chance - but more a sort of 'wow, this is so incredibly improbable, there may be something special behind it.'

    They are, of course, arguing after the event but they are claiming that this particular configuration is especially significant, like the one gold card among a trillion plain ones, and I do think the argument falls apart at this point... but it does seem presumptuous to think physicists wouldn't spot something as obvious as... improbable events are possible.
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #93 - April 18, 2011, 06:54 PM

    all what you said is true EXCEPT, as Richard Dawkins admits in that video, in the multiverse version, our universe has a much higher weight than any other configurations.... the odds for different configurations are NOT equiprobable... our universe is so highly probable it's existence is known a priori to be almost a deterministic event rather than a random one. Those who don't subscribe to the multiverse idea, just plain out say the existence of our universe is a completely deterministic event.  

    Watch the video, I had no idea Physicists already had these views.

    Quote
    On second thoughts... the chances of choosing a non-significant value from a load of insignificant values is well... 1 in 1.

     
    given that it happened... yeah, even the chances of an *impossible* event to happen, given that it hapened, is 1 in 1, obviously (events that have already happened become deterministic events, rather than probabilistic ones, obviously).

    That's why it is a real cop-out to start with the posterior knowledge of the existence of our universe to try to answer the question concerning its existence.  


    A googolplex is *precisely* as far from infinity as is the number 1.--Carl Sagan
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #94 - April 18, 2011, 09:58 PM


    Proobably not very, but that isn't really the point is it? The point is more that some people think that our universe's array of constants indicates a deity, and their feeling that this is the case is based on their flawed understanding of how probability works.


    yeah i think it's actually quite unfortunate how a very interesting scientific problem is hijacked in this manner. i even get the feeling sometimes that some physicists don't like to talk about it because they run the risk of embarassingly getting drawn into a converstaion about religion/god.

    i just found an article today with Steven Weinbergs take on things:

    ''This conclusion about the lessons to be learned from carbon synthesis is somewhat controversial. In any case, there is one constant whose value does seem remarkably well adjusted in our favor. It is the energy density of empty space, also known as the cosmological constant. It could have any value, but from first principles one would guess that this constant should be very large, and could be positive or negative. If large and positive, the cosmological constant would act as a repulsive force that increases with distance, a force that would prevent matter from clumping together in the early universe, the process that was the first step in forming galaxies and stars and planets and people. If large and negative the cosmological constant would act as an attractive force increasing with distance, a force that would almost immediately reverse the expansion of the universe and cause it to recollapse, leaving no time for the evolution of life. In fact, astronomical observations show that the cosmological constant is quite small, very much smaller than would have been guessed from first principles.

    It is still too early to tell whether there is some fundamental principle that can explain why the cosmological constant must be this small. But even if there is no such principle, recent developments in cosmology offer the possibility of an explanation of why the measured values of the cosmological constant and other physical constants are favorable for the appearance of intelligent life. According to the 'chaotic inflation' theories of André Linde and others, the expanding cloud of billions of galaxies that we call the big bang may be just one fragment of a much larger universe in which big bangs go off all the time, each one with different values for the fundamental constants.

    In any such picture, in which the universe contains many parts with different values for what we call the constants of nature, there would be no difficulty in understanding why these constants take values favorable to intelligent life. There would be a vast number of big bangs in which the constants of nature take values unfavorable for life, and many fewer where life is possible. You don't have to invoke a benevolent designer to explain why we are in one of the parts of the universe where life is possible: in all the other parts of the universe there is no one to raise the question.3 If any theory of this general type turns out to be correct, then to conclude that the constants of nature have been fine-tuned by a benevolent designer would be like saying, 'Isn't it wonderful that God put us here on earth, where there's water and air and the surface gravity and temperature are so comfortable, rather than some horrid place, like Mercury or Pluto?' Where else in the solar system other than on earth could we have evolved?

    Reasoning like this is called 'anthropic.' Sometimes it just amounts to an assertion that the laws of nature are what they are so that we can exist, without further explanation. This seems to me to be little more than mystical mumbo jumbo. On the other hand, if there really is a large number of worlds in which some constants take different values, then the anthropic explanation of why in our world they take values favorable for life is just common sense, like explaining why we live on the earth rather than Mercury or Pluto. The actual value of the cosmological constant, recently measured by observations of the motion of distant supernovas, is about what you would expect from this sort of argument: it is just about small enough so that it does not interfere much with the formation of galaxies. But we don't yet know enough about physics to tell whether there are different parts of the universe in which what are usually called the constants of physics really do take different values. This is not a hopeless question; we will be able to answer it when we know more about the quantum theory of gravitation than we do now.''

    full article:

    http://www.physlink.com/education/essay_weinberg.cfm




    ''we are morally and philisophically in the best position to win the league'' - Arsene Wenger
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #95 - April 18, 2011, 10:08 PM

    and more from dudes who actually know what they're talking about  grin12
    .... an extremely interesting interview with Leonard Susskind (one of the founders of string theory, and pretty much one of the smartest people on the planet today):

    part of interview:

    David Gross of UC Santa Barbara says, "Science has managed to explain lots of other weird numbers—so why shouldn't we expect eventually to explain the cosmological constant and other key parameters?"

    David is entirely correct in one respect. The views that I have expressed are far from rigorous scientific facts. The observational evidence for a cosmological constant, for inflation, and the mathematical evidence for a string theory landscape could all evaporate. So far they show no signs of doing so, but surprises happen. It is certainly premature to declare victory and close the question. I would be very worried if all theoretical physicists "gave up" (as David puts it) looking for a mathematical explanation for the "weird" value of the cosmological constant. But I think David exaggerates when he claims that science has explained anything like the fine-tuning of the cosmological constant.

    Some physicists say the landscape idea lacks "beauty" or "elegance." Is that a fair criticism?

    It's a silly criticism. One should not decide the truth of a scientific proposition by appeal to someone's aesthetic sensibilities. Einstein said, "If you are out to describe the truth, leave elegance to the tailor." Similarly Thomas Huxley referred to "the great tragedy of science—the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact."

    Without experimental data, how will we ever decide these questions?

    Ah, now we come to the heart of the matter. How do we find out? Definitive evidence of the rest of the multiverse is out of the question. My guess is that over time we will learn more about the physical basis for inflation, and much of it will come from observational data. We may find deviations from the simplest inflation models that might tell us about how inflation began. We may be able to use statistical properties of the landscape to make predictions about quantities that we have not yet measured. Anyway, I don’t grant you the conclusion that there will be no more experimental data.

    But let's keep our focus on the question: Is the universe very large (apparently so) and diverse, or is it everywhere the same, with particles and constants uniquely determined by elegant mathematics? No one knows for sure. Both are hypotheses. It is just as hard to confirm or falsify one as the other. Recent developments have favored the former, but the question is still open. Honestly, I don't know how it will be definitively decided. But quite frankly, I find the unique/elegant solution to be far more faith-based at the present time than the diversity solution


    full article:

    http://www.americanscientist.org/bookshelf/pub/leonard-susskind

    ''we are morally and philisophically in the best position to win the league'' - Arsene Wenger
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #96 - April 18, 2011, 10:36 PM


    given that it happened... yeah, even the chances of an *impossible* event to happen, given that it hapened, is 1 in 1, obviously (events that have already happened become deterministic events, rather than probabilistic ones, obviously).

    That's why it is a real cop-out to start with the posterior knowledge of the existence of our universe to try to answer the question concerning its existence.  




    That's not the point I was making.
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #97 - April 19, 2011, 12:21 PM

    a very, very, cool wiki article regarding these issues:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_Principle

    ''we are morally and philisophically in the best position to win the league'' - Arsene Wenger
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #98 - April 19, 2011, 12:49 PM

    Thanks Abuyunus,


    I read a book on this a couple of years ago (The Goldilocks Enigma, Paul Davis – I’d highly recommended it to anyone who is new to all this, btw), but this wiki article is a nice concise reminder about some of the issues surrounding the anthropic principle. It will certainly help me follow this thread a little easier now Afro

    Hi
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