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Theme Changer

 Topic: The Fine Tuning Argument

 (Read 13284 times)
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  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #60 - April 17, 2011, 09:19 PM

    zbd

    I might be mistaken, but I think you were the one who made the argument, quite a few months ago, that the fine tuning problem actually works against theistic explanations for the origin of the cosmos because it assumes that god can only create life through extremely limited means...

    At evening, casual flocks of pigeons make
    Ambiguous undulations as they sink,
    Downward to darkness, on extended wings. - Stevens
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #61 - April 17, 2011, 09:23 PM

    @ z10

    Quote
    zbd

    I might be mistaken, but I think you were the one who made the argument, quite a few months ago, that the fine tuning problem actually works against theistic explanations for the origin of the cosmos because it assumes that god can only create life through extremely limited means...


    i agree... saying that this universe was "designed" to give life speaks very lowly of its "designer", although its maker, if it has one, can only be a magician being able to pull this off through extremely limited means (as you put it).

    A googolplex is *precisely* as far from infinity as is the number 1.--Carl Sagan
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #62 - April 17, 2011, 09:23 PM

    @Osman

    It's not often I find myself defending the fine-tuning argument! But just for shits 'n' giggles:

    The problem, as I see, is not just the matter of unlikely universes, but also the high improbability of each and every one of the required constants being what they need to be too. It's not just a matter of one equally unlikely universe, but rather, every single required constant in that universe being precisely what it needs to be despite the immense improbability of each one.


    You are arguing after the event. Citing the improbability of present conditions arising, then claiming they are what needs to be and concluding that the reason they do exist must have been concious intent.

    But hey let's assume there is something intrinsically special about this configuration of the universe... (though I think that's incredibly chauvinistic and so typical of man) it still doesn't change the mathematics. The chances of choosing any random configuration and choosing a pre-defined configuration is exactly the same. We don't think of it that way because of our evolved tendency to assume concious intent behind the most mundane of events. (People even buy clothing for those automatic hoovering disk thingies because they are just wired to think of it being alive.) We notice when someone chooses something significant, and ignore all the times when people choose crap. So when something improbable yet significant happens, be it even a 'natural' event, we assign agency to a concious being. It's how we invented the myriad of gods we did and how, evidently, we are still continuing.

    Quote
    I think it's quite dubious to compare something like the universe's (apparent) fine-tuning to a hand of cards, given that there are far more possibilities for configurations of universes than there are for potential hands of cards. Still, given that the configuration of each and every constant is precise and perfect, despite the far greater likelihood of other, life-prohibiting configurations, it seems to me to be more correct to compare the fine-tuning itself to consistently and without exception receiving a royal flush, getting no other, lesser hands. This, surely, is vastly less probable than just receiving a single flush, and in such a situation, one may rightly suspect design rather than chance.


    I offered you an example with odds of 10^10000 to 1.


  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #63 - April 17, 2011, 09:26 PM

    zbd

    I might be mistaken, but I think you were the one who made the argument, quite a few months ago, that the fine tuning problem actually works against theistic explanations for the origin of the cosmos because it assumes that god can only create life through extremely limited means...



    With regards to the 'fine-tuning' argument, I'm surprised that theists and atheists alike consistently fail to notice the glaring contradiction in it. That is, that it, despite being an argument in favour of theism, presupposes a default, uncreated set of physical rules around which the universe has to be fine-tuned.

    A major premise of theism is that only God exists in a non-contingent capacity, but if God must configure the physical laws and constants in a very, very specific manner in order to create a life-permitting universe, then there must be a pre-existing order that restricts what God is able to do. If an omnipotent God exists, then there can be no restriction on its ability to create a life-permitting universe. The laws and constants would not have to be configured in any way, let alone so incredibly precisely.

    The whole argument is predicated on the idea that the laws and constants have to be exactly what they are and can't be different because, if they were, life couldn't exist. However, that completely contradicts the idea of an all-poweful God. If this premise of the fine-tuning argument is the case, then it follows necessarily that theism isn't.

    The attempt to use God to explain design or 'teleology' is much like the attempt to use God to explain existence itself. That is, completely futile. God itself exists and God itself has various highly unlikely attributes (like omniscience and omnipotence) that can have no cause or explanation. Theism asserts that a super-intelligent, highly sophisticated, omnipotent and willed being, which can have no possible cause or explanation, simply is the default state of existence. Surely the theistic God himself must wonder why even he exists, rather than not?

    By contrast, entities that come about by natural processes, like animals, do have an explanation, even if we don't fully understand it or can't fully comprehend it in our minds, given the timespans involved.

    God is actually not a good, let alone the best, explanatory hypothesis. It requires the belief that blind and purposeless metaphysical forces have conspired to produce a being that is omnipotent, omniscient and faultless. By contrast, the position of the metaphysical naturalist is that, given the right circumstances and in rare instances, blind and purposeless forces can produce life, with all its faults. Even then, the natural order is clearly orderly and evolution by natural selection is not an entirely unguided process. This cannot be said of some supernatural metaphysical configuration.

    "Imagine 500 years from now, a group of archaeologists start digging in London’s Hyde Park only to find parts of a car and a bus. They would be completely justified in inferring that these finds were not the result of sedimentation and metamorphosis but products of an unknown civilization."

    That is a fallacious comparison. Why? Because we know that past civilisations existed, we know that they made things. By contrast, we do not know if an immaterial, timeless and spaceless mind is even capable of existing. The two explanations cannot be compared.

    "the very fact that we can observe and perform rational analysis on the patterns we perceive in the universe makes more sense if God did exist"

    It makes perfect sense that we can understand the universe because we have evolved within it and are adapted to understand it. If we weren't, our species would have long since gone extinct. It would only be noteworthy if, despite having evolved within the universe and requiring to understand it to survive, we somehow were completely detached from it.

    "it is more likely that God would create an ordered universe, and since the universe we live in is ordered..."

    Really? To what extent? Most planets are lifeless, celestial bodies collide with each other all the time, up to and including entire galaxies. The Andromeda galaxy, for example, is approaching our own and will eventually collide with it. Granted, there is some order to the universe, but theism asserts a profound, perfect and causeless order, which goes further than naturalism.

    Even down to the level of DNA one can perceive the disorderly and haphazard arrangement of the natural world. This is, of course, why diseases like neurofibromatosis or sickle-cell anaemia exist, why our genomes contain redundant and atavistic pseudogenes, and why about 8% of all human DNA is composed of viral DNA from ERVs.

    The evidence that we see contradicts the Qur'an in Surat al-Mulk, verse 3: "You do not see in the Compassionate One’s creation, of these or of other things, any irregularity, any disparity or discordance." -- Jalalayn

    Morality, on the other hand, is also a problem for the theist. The most obvious problem is the Euthyphro dilemma; i.e., is it good because God commands it or does God command it because it is good?

    I believe that the Islamic stance is that things are neither intrinsically good or evil, but rather morality is determined purely by the dicates of Allah. This so-called 'divine command theory' of morality is every bit as arbitrary and subjective as many forms of atheistic morality. It forms no more sound a basis for objective morality than utilitarianism or consequentialism.

    A good example would be that, according to Islamic creationism, Adam and Eve were the first humans and they were the progenitors of all mankind (Surat al-A'raaf:189, Surat al-Hujuraat:13) and so, their progeny would have had to resort to incest to produce the rest of the human race. Of course, incest is a sin in Islam, and yet Allah made it so that the human race could only come about by incest? The moral standard must have changed.

    Another example is that slavery is permitted in Islam. We now understand that slavery is immoral, but Allah never claimed that it was. And while it's true that there are numerous ahadith that enjoin humane treatment towards slaves, one must acknowledge that the institution of slavery is inherantly immoral and inequitable, as I'm sure you'd grant.

    Still, with regards to W.L.C.'s argument from objective morality; I see that you commit the same fallacy of begging the question in its presentation. You simply assert that objective morals exist yet completely neglect to support this hypothesis. Simply saying that we believe genocide is objectively wrong does not constitute an argument that shows that it is wrong. Indeed, it may well be immoral or evil, but this argument doesn't demonstrate that.

    This is an argument that draws on human intuition, but which doesn't actually prove anything.

    "However since our universe contains objective morality then it can only make sense with God’s existence, because God is required as rational basis for objective morality."

    If our universe 'contains objective morality,' as you put it, then this morality must be objectively observable and demonstrable, and therefore perfectly natural and so would not require an appeal to the supernatural in order to be explained. Therefore, the existence of such a natural phenomenon would not prove the existence of a God. Any more than would, say, the existence of the universe itself.

    "God is the only conceptual anchor that transcends human subjectivity."

    What about mathematics? What about logic?

    "In God’s absence, there are only two alternative conceptual foundations

    1. Social pressure

    2. Evolution"

    I don't think so. Kant's theory of deontological ethics, for example, neither relies on the assumption of God's existence nor on social pressure or evolution. Similarly, consequentialism and utilitarianism don't depend on evolution or social pressure.

    "God as a concept is not subjective"

    Yes, it is. That's why, even within religions, the ideas of God's character and desires are very different from individual to individual.

    "having God as the basis for morality makes them binding and objective, because God transcends human subjectivity."

    If there existed a world-wide dictatorship that controlled every country on the globe and imposed its laws, that government's laws would transcend human subjectivity. However, these laws are not morally correct and truly binding just because they are imposed over all people.

    The idea of a God dictating morality necessitates the same problem. God may have the power to impose his will and morals, but that doesn't necessarily make them correct or justified. God cannot dictate that a child be sacrificed to him every month, morally speaking. That would clearly be immoral. There is a standard outside of God that he himself must be bound by, hence why even he does not have the power to arbitrarily dictate what is moral and what is immoral.

    This is the case because God, like any individual, is just another subjective consciousness and it is for this reason that he cannot dictate what is objectively moral.

    End Quote


    19:46   <zizo>: hugs could pimp u into sex

    Quote from: yeezevee
    well I am neither ex-Muslim nor absolute 100% Non-Muslim.. I am fucking Zebra

  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #64 - April 17, 2011, 09:40 PM

    Quote
    I offered you an example with odds of 10^10000 to 1.

    the major difference in your example, Tut's golfing example, and Tlaloc example, is that the probability of any event is measurable. This is not the case IF the universe's sample space of outcomes is infinite (the power set of events would be uncountable, and therefore not all events in this set can be assigned probabilities, but only those events that belong in the sigma-algebra on the sample space can be assigned probabilities).

    to explain using Tut's golfing example, what is the probability that the golf ball would fall on a particular grass blade, given that it didn't fall in a lake, in sand or on any of the other grass blades? Answer: 100%. We know this a priori, even before observing the event that it did fall on our particular grass blade.

    on the other hand, and ignoring any posterior knowledge, given that non of the other alternative states for the universe prevailed, what are the chances that the current state of the universe would come to pass? Only by posterior knowledge we know it's possible, but then again, we're questioing this possibility.

    In other words, the current state of the universe is not necessarily known to be a probable event a priori (unlike the case for all the other examples you guys gave).

    EDIT: irrelavant info crossed out.

    A googolplex is *precisely* as far from infinity as is the number 1.--Carl Sagan
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #65 - April 17, 2011, 09:47 PM

    The other side to this is that the universe is becoming more and more predictable every day because entropy is always increasing.

    Yes I know. I just posted that for fun. Since then I've extraplolated it into a wonderful thing that I have titled the Principle of Sublime Probablistic Idiocydance

    I know why it is flawed. It's related to the basic problem Zeb and others seem to be having with understanding how probabilty works, and why the fine tuning argument is so laughably fuckwitted that it should not really be given serious consideration.

    I'm fnding this thread interesting as an example of the different ways that different minds work. Some of the philosophy student types seem to lack an intuitive clarity when dealing with the basics of probability, even though they are undoubtedly intelligent individuals. For instance, the criticism of fine tuning that was proposed by Deusvult and Zeb is ok. It works. However, to my mind it's rather like taking down the elephant in the room by gnawing its leg off, instead of just using the elephant gun that's sitting on the mantelpiece.

    Devious, treacherous, murderous, neanderthal, sub-human of the West. bunny
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #66 - April 17, 2011, 09:53 PM

    Yes I know. I just posted that for fun. Since then I've extraplolated it into a wonderful thing that I have titled the Principle of Sublime Probablistic Idiocy.  dance

    I know why it is flawed. It's related to the basic problem Zeb and others seem to be having with understanding how probabilty works, and why the fine tuning argument is so laughably fuckwitted that it should not really be given serious consideration.



    It's a shame we are so predisposed to assigning concious agency to anything we haven't yet understood via mathematics/mechanics. Evolution can be a bitch Tongue
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #67 - April 17, 2011, 09:54 PM

    the major difference in your example, Tut's golfing example, and Tlaloc example, is that the probability of any event is measurable. This is not the case IF the universe's sample space of outcomes is infinite (the power set of events would be uncountable, and therefore not all events in this set can be assigned probabilities, but only those events that belong in the sigma-algebra on the sample space can be assigned probabilities).

    to explain using Tut's golfing example, what is the probability that the golf ball would fall on a particular grass blade, given that it didn't fall in a lake, in sand or on any of the other grass blades? Answer: 100%. We know this a priori, even before observing the event that it did fall on our particular grass blade.

    on the other hand, and ignoring any posterior knowledge, given that non of the other alternative states for the universe prevailed, what are the chances that the current state of the universe would come to pass? We don't know. We're not even sure if it's a measurable event. Only by posterior knowledge we know it's possible, but then again, we're questioing this posibility.

    In other words, the current state of the universe is not necessarily known to be a probable event a priori (unlike the case for the all the other examples you guys gave).


    With this logic the argument for god via the fine-tuning argument falls apart.
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #68 - April 17, 2011, 09:56 PM

    Quote
    With this logic the argument for god via the fine-tuning argument falls apart.

    I said many times in this thread, if the fine-tuning argument is trying to portray God as a "designer" of the universe, then the argument's goal must have been to kill the idea of God.

    A googolplex is *precisely* as far from infinity as is the number 1.--Carl Sagan
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #69 - April 17, 2011, 09:56 PM

     Afro
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #70 - April 17, 2011, 10:31 PM

    This is another roundabout way of presenting the basic sampling problem. It's at the root of all the misconecptions about fine tuning IMHO.

    Devious, treacherous, murderous, neanderthal, sub-human of the West. bunny
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #71 - April 17, 2011, 10:34 PM

    Quote
    This is another roundabout way of presenting the basic sampling problem. It's at the root of all the misconecptions about fine tuning IMHO.


    explain.

    A googolplex is *precisely* as far from infinity as is the number 1.--Carl Sagan
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #72 - April 17, 2011, 10:42 PM

    Yeah, it's a good little exercise innit. grin12

    I did warn you about getting dazzled by big numbers. You need to stop being fixated on them and think conceptually instead. Wink

    This is where you are going wrong, and it is this sort of thing I have been trying to explain to you.
    We have only one observable universe to use as a reference sample. I hope we can agree on that. If you wish to disagree with it you'd better be prepared to pony up some extra, real, observable universes for me. Since we have only one universe as our sample this is, in terms of probability calculations, the equivalent of being dealt one hand. It is not, in any way, the equivalent of being dealt billions of hands. If you are considering the likelihood of our universe you have to consider the probablilty of it as it is, not the probablility of every separate component of it. This one hand may have given an extemely unlikely result but it is still only one hand.

    Now if we had lots of observable universes available, and if they all supported sentient life and we knew they did, then the fine tuning argument would begin to look very interesting. We don't have that though. We only have the one universe as our sample, and probability calculations tell you nothing at all about whether you are likely to get one alternative or another in a single sample.

    Sure, they give you a likelihood if your sample size is sufficiently large but ours is not. No matter what the infintesimal probability of our universe happens to be, in the absence of a larger array of samples we can draw no conclusions from its existence, because drawing reliable statistical conclusions is critically dependent on having a large enough sample size to determine if your result cannot be attributed to chance.

    You should also bear in mind that, even for a vast array of hypothetical universes that do not support life, the probability of any one constant being precisely what it happens to be in that unverse is still going to be vanishingly small. The fact that it does not support life does not change this, so in a very real sense we can say that it would be just as unlikely as our universe anyway. This is a separate point to the sample size problem. The sample size problem alone is enough to kill fine tuning, but say you have half a dozen universal constants in every possible universe. Each one of those can potentially take a range of values that is presumably infinite, in the absence of anything suggesting otherwise. This means that for any and all possible universes, the probability of the constants being precisely what they are is not obviously going to be any higher than the probablity of constants in our universe having the exact values they have.

    I see you're using the Argument from Personal Incredulity. My response above covers this.

    Ok, but what they are saying is somewhat different to what you originally said. You said this:
    Your post implied that the reason for multiverse theory being conceived in the first place was because "physicists" (implying any and all of them, by the way) wanted a way of explaining fine tuning. This wasn't what happened, of course. What happened was that, having become aware that our universe is finite in size and age, and not having any obvious proof that it was or could be the only universe, physicists would have to be gobsmackingly unimaginative to not wonder if multiple universes were possible and, if so, what they might be like. As you may have noticed, good theoretical physicists tend not to be gobsmackingly unimaginative.

    What Dicky was saying was basically just that we know the constants have to have very precise values to make our particular universe stable, and that some people wonder if there is something more to this. No offense, but I knew that already. Wink

    Yes, but it is if you present their quote snippets as supporting your contention for a deity when they think otherwise, and if you refuse to quote the bits where they say this and why.

    The existence of a designer is not supported by the facts, though. The illusion that it is is a result of not undestanding how the probabilities should be assessed.


    Actually I think this is a little unfair on Zeb. From what I can tell he has understood the concepts as well as anyone on here (or maybe i haven't understood anything  grin12 ). Indeed he has used similar arguments posted on this thread to refute the 'fine tuning argument' as evidence for a theistic god previously on this forum - I'm not sure what his aims in this thread are - perhaps it's just to highlight how little we know and how much there is to learn and to highlight the fact that scientific thinking by some these days can itself be too dogmatic.

    From what I can tell the only relavant argument here is the fact that we have a sample size of one i.e. our own universe - and that is enough to stop the 'fine tuning argument' in its tracks. Os - you are quite happy to leave it there and that's totally understandable given the fact that we cannot and may not ever be able to make any observations outside our own universe. But this itself is problematic from a scientific point of veiw - if we can't ever know if there are any universes that exist other than our own, how sensible really is it to use these ideas in a discussion about science? (not a straightforward question to answer IMO). And I think this is the mentality that Zeb is approaching the problem with (it's not that he doesn't understand how probability works or is dazzled by big numbers, lol). If we take the existence of other universes out of the equation on the reasoning that such a hypothesis is unscientific, or perhaps if we just did not have a good feeling about multiverse etc. then we would be much more justified in taking the 'fine tuning' issues more seriously (I personally btw have no problem with proposing existence of other universes). Of course even then it doesn't actually give any evidence for a designer, but it's still something that we would have to scratch our heads a hell of a lot more to think about what's going on. Indeed there might be things at work that is beyond the capacity of the human mind to understand. Personally, I find it an extremely interesting topic of discussion especially when you throw the string theory take on it.


    ''we are morally and philisophically in the best position to win the league'' - Arsene Wenger
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #73 - April 17, 2011, 10:46 PM

    Quote
    perhaps it's just to highlight how little we know and how much there is to learn and to highlight the fact that scientific thinking by some these days can itself be too dogmatic


    that's indeed all what zeb was doing...

    A googolplex is *precisely* as far from infinity as is the number 1.--Carl Sagan
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #74 - April 17, 2011, 10:51 PM

    @Osman

    I agree with some of what you wrote, and disagree with other stuff. This is perhaps a terse response but I'm not looking to continue this argument, but rather just to clarify a few points.

    Quote
    We have only one observable universe to use as a reference sample. I hope we can agree on that. If you wish to disagree with it you'd better be prepared to pony up some extra, real, observable universes for me. Since we have only one universe as our sample this is, in terms of probability calculations, the equivalent of being dealt one hand. It is not, in any way, the equivalent of being dealt billions of hands. If you are considering the likelihood of our universe you have to consider the probablilty of it as it is, not the probablility of every separate component of it. This one hand may have given an extemely unlikely result but it is still only one hand...


    Point conceded. I suppose if we don't have other universes to observe then it is indeed difficult to say what is or isn't possible or likely.

    Quote
    Your post implied that the reason for multiverse theory being conceived in the first place was because "physicists" (implying any and all of them, by the way) wanted a way of explaining fine tuning.


    Well, of course, the multiverse theory is advanced as a possible explanation for the appearance of fine-tuning, though granted such a hypothesis no doubt precedes the fine-tuning argument.

    And I really didn't intend to imply all physicists. I freely acknowledge there are those who reject the idea outright.

    Quote
    and that some people wonder if there is something more to this


    No, some assert that there is something to it, as in the video I posted of Penrose discussing the subject, which you seemed to pass over. In particular, the part at 3:50 where he explicitly says it's fine tuning. Of course, he could well be wrong, but he could also be right too, and I doubt you could accuse him of being inept with the numbers part at least, even if he lacks in critical thinking.

    Quote
    Yes, but it is if you present their quote snippets as supporting your contention for a deity when they think otherwise, and if you refuse to quote the bits where they say this and why.


    I never refused to quote anything and well you know it. I merely took quotes from them which showed the improbability of the universe's configuration. I didn't say that they claim it proves God, although Penrose's words in that video seem to allude to the existence of a 'tuner.'

    Quote
    The existence of a designer is not supported by the facts, though. The illusion that it is is a result of not undestanding how the probabilities should be assessed.


    Maybe, maybe not, but either way, I lack the expertise in mathematics to debate on that subject, so I won't attempt it.

    All that said, I largely agree with your central premise anyway, that is, that the fine-tuning argument is flawed. And I don't really want to continue debating on this subject when I agree with your conclusion, as it would be something of a waste of time. Sometimes it's just interesting to argue from the perspective of the other side. On that, I concede defeat and tip my hat to you.
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #75 - April 17, 2011, 10:52 PM

    that's indeed all what zeb was doing...


    Precisely. That's where this discussion started, the fine-tuning argument was just a side issue.
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #76 - April 17, 2011, 10:53 PM

    @Spinoza

    As I said to Osman, I'm not looking to continue this discussion and you're probably right anyway. But thanks for sharing your thoughts.
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #77 - April 17, 2011, 10:56 PM

    @z10

    Yes, my position is outlined in my response posted by GING. I'm just arguing on behalf of the other side for lolz.
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #78 - April 17, 2011, 10:59 PM

    @ Abu

    Quote
    From what I can tell the only relavant argument here is the fact that we have a sample size of one i.e. our own universe - and that is enough to stop the 'fine tuning argument' in its tracks. Os - you are quite happy to leave it there and that's totally understandable given the fact that we cannot and may not ever be able to make any observations outside our own universe.


    Ok, let's forget about the fine tuning argument and let's start after the big bang and the formation of the first stars. Ignoring any posterior knowledge (after the formation of first stars), do we know that we can even assign a probability to the event that a life-sustaining planet would be born? I know that sounds too much to ask since one has to be an expert on cosmology to even try to answer that question, but I just wanted to again highlight the fact that dismissing these questions using examples like what have been offered by Tut, etc, is unfair.
     

    A googolplex is *precisely* as far from infinity as is the number 1.--Carl Sagan
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #79 - April 17, 2011, 11:00 PM

    @AbuYunus3

    Quote
    (it's not that he doesn't understand how probability works or is dazzled by big numbers, lol)


    Actually, it could well be, I'm shit at maths  grin12
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #80 - April 17, 2011, 11:00 PM

    @Osman

    I agree with some of what you wrote, and disagree with other stuff. This is perhaps a terse response but I'm not looking to continue this argument, but rather just to clarify a few points.

    Ok. Smiley My main interest in it is thinking of ways to explain the misconceptions about probability so that anyone reading the thread can grasp the point. I'm not really arguing against you as such, as I'm aware you think that fine tuning is crap (for other reasons). I'm just concerned that a lot of people do seem to think that fine tuning is a worthy argument, and am wondering what can be done about that. It's the sort of thing we should probably have a knockdown sticky for, with the various criticisms clearly laid out.


    Quote
    No, some assert that there is something to it, as in the video I posted of Penrose discussing the subject, which you seemed to pass over. In particular, the part at 3:50 where he explicitly says it's fine tuning. Of course, he could well be wrong, but he could also be right too, and I doubt you could accuse him of being inept with the numbers part at least, even if he lacks in critical thinking.

    Yes, I skipped the Penrose vid because it was having difficulty loading it last night. The Dawkins one was no problem.


    Quote
    I never refused to quote anything and well you know it. I merely took quotes from them which showed the improbability of the universe's configuration. I didn't say that they claim it proves God, although Penrose's words in that video seem to allude to the existence of a 'tuner.'

    I wasn't referring to you when I made the accusation of quote mining. I was referring to Craig, whose book you had quoted. Sorry if that wasn't clear.


    Quote
    All that said, I largely agree with your central premise anyway, that is, that the fine-tuning argument is flawed. And I don't really want to continue debating on this subject when I agree with your conclusion, as it would be something of a waste of time. Sometimes it's just interesting to argue from the perspective of the other side. On that, I concede defeat and tip my hat to you.

    Well as I said, I didn't really think of this as a battle as such anyway.

    Devious, treacherous, murderous, neanderthal, sub-human of the West. bunny
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #81 - April 17, 2011, 11:07 PM

    @Ishina

    Quote
    What is the probability of picking the Ace of Spades out of a deck of cards?


    I have no idea, but as I've said, I'm no longer up for this discussion on probability. It makes my head hurt.  Cry
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #82 - April 17, 2011, 11:35 PM

    no, because I already said, if we are to look at it as a design, then it's an extremely bad one (being very sensitive to certain parameters). Saying that the universe was meant to be is referring to *intent*, and intent doesn't necessarily imply design. (a divine being, e.g., can will things into existence, without design).

    Fair point. Intent does imply a conscious entity though, and conscious entities usually have a habit of messing around with things. Anyway........


    Quote
    The apple tree is an analogy for planet earth, not the universe (it was based on the Ishina's video). Strictly speaking, a lush apple tree can exist in an arid desert. For example, and although it's infinitely improbable, the weather system can cause a little cloud to pass daily over the tree to give just enough rain. If this scenario, for example, is one reason why the tree is there, then one must admit intent.

    Anyway, you can ignore the analogy, it won't subtract anything from the discussion.

    The reason I don't like your analogy and regard it as pointless is because, as you just mentioned, we know apple trees require a constant source of water, which is unavailable in your proposed situation. On the other hand, our planet does not require a constant input of anything to sustain life, except for starlight and a source of heat. Both of these are readily available almost anywhere you are going to find planets.


    explain.

    I'll get to that bit later. I'm still thinking about the best way to phrase it. Smiley

    Devious, treacherous, murderous, neanderthal, sub-human of the West. bunny
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #83 - April 18, 2011, 12:03 AM

    Quote
    The reason I don't like your analogy and regard it as pointless is because, as you just mentioned, we know apple trees require a constant source of water, which is unavailable in your proposed situation. On the other hand, our planet does not require a constant input of anything to sustain life, except for starlight and a source of heat. Both of these are readily available almost anywhere you are going to find planets.


    ok, let's forget the fact that i used it as a (bad) analogy, and let's discuss the hypothetical question itself. What if you saw an apple tree in the middle of an arid desert and learned that one of the reasons it's there is that the weather system has been forming a cloud small enough to water that tree, on a daily basis?  

    Since i know nothing about the complexity of weather systems, i cannot even be sure that such a recurring event can be assigned any probability at all, but let's assume we know it's a statistcially measurable event, and that the probability assigned to it is ridiculously small, then wouldn't i be at least a tiny bit justified in thinking this is an act of God?

    Granted, if God's goal was to plant an apple tree in the middle of the desert to show what a brilliant "designer" He is, then He's chosen a really bad way to get the message across. If, however, His purpose was to show a miracle, while not depriving us the choice to disbelieve in the miraculous nature of the event, then, as far as I'm concerned, He did a great job.

    A googolplex is *precisely* as far from infinity as is the number 1.--Carl Sagan
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #84 - April 18, 2011, 12:18 AM

    ok, let's forget the fact that i used it as a (bad) analogy, and let's discuss the hypothetical question itself. What if you saw an apple tree in the middle of an arid desert and learned that one of the reasons it's there is that the weather system has been forming a cloud small enough to water that tree, on a daily basis?

    I'd blame those bloody butterflies.  finmad


    Quote
    Since i know nothing about the complexity of weather systems, i cannot even be sure that such a recurring event can be assigned any probability at all, but let's assume we know it's a statistcially measurable event, and that the probability assigned to it is ridiculously small, then wouldn't i be at least a tiny bit justified in thinking this is an act of God?

    You're essentially proposing that you have a large enough sample size to assess the statistical significance of the results, and have results that cannot be attributed to chance. In that case yes, you would be justifed in wondering WTF was going on. Afro


    Quote
    Granted, if God's goal was to plant an apple tree in the middle of the desert to show what a brilliant "designer" He is, then He's chosen a really bad way to get the message across. If, however, His purpose was to show a miracle, while not depriving us the choice to disbelieve in the miraculous nature of the event, then, as far as I'm concerned, He did a great job.

    Personally I'd disagree with that, on the grounds that he gave us far too much latitude to disbelieve, and bugger all incentive to believe.

    Devious, treacherous, murderous, neanderthal, sub-human of the West. bunny
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #85 - April 18, 2011, 12:39 AM

    Quote
    I'd blame those bloody butterflies.

    I actually like your answer... fairies, assuming they exist, are supernatural beings.

    Quote
    You're essentially proposing that you have a large enough sample size to assess the statistical significance of the results, and have results that cannot be attributed to chance. In that case yes, you would be justifed in wondering WTF was going on.

    Actually, no, I already said that I'm assuming there's an extremely tiny chance that weird glitch in the weather system might happen.

    Quote
    Personally I'd disagree with that, on the grounds that he gave us far too much latitude to disbelieve, and bugger all incentive to believe.

    but you just said, you'd blame fairies... i thought given that hypothetical scenario, you were serious about considering supernatural powers to be the explanation.

    A googolplex is *precisely* as far from infinity as is the number 1.--Carl Sagan
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #86 - April 18, 2011, 12:41 AM

    No. It was a joke about the infamous "butterfly effect". Wink

    Devious, treacherous, murderous, neanderthal, sub-human of the West. bunny
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #87 - April 18, 2011, 12:43 AM

    oh, ok  Smiley

    A googolplex is *precisely* as far from infinity as is the number 1.--Carl Sagan
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #88 - April 18, 2011, 12:48 AM

    Sorry, I forgot to reply to this bit:

    Actually, no, I already said that I'm assuming there's an extremely tiny chance that weird glitch in the weather system might happen.

    Well, there always would be, since probability doesn't tell you exactly when you will get any result, nor how many times in a row you will get that result. You are assuming though that your event is happening often enough and regularly enough that it seems highly unlikely to be attributable to chance. That is usually taken as good grounds for further pondering. It doesn't apply to fine tuning though since the sample size............................................

    Devious, treacherous, murderous, neanderthal, sub-human of the West. bunny
  • Re: The Fine Tuning Argument
     Reply #89 - April 18, 2011, 01:05 AM

    @z10

    Yes, my position is outlined in my response posted by GING. I'm just arguing on behalf of the other side for lolz.


    Ah fair enough, happy hunting Smiley

    At evening, casual flocks of pigeons make
    Ambiguous undulations as they sink,
    Downward to darkness, on extended wings. - Stevens
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