Truce in the Culture War

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- three
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Truce in the Culture War
Reply #30 - July 23, 2017, 03:51 PM

I do not interact with twenty people per day, I typically see the same people over and over and only maybe two are unfamiliar, if that.
You must be really busy out all day.
There were four arrests. I don't know about convictions.

Don't let Hitler have the street.
- gal_from_usa
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Reply #31 - July 24, 2017, 02:31 AM

Quote from: three on July 23, 2017, 03:51 PM
I do not interact with twenty people per day, I typically see the same people over and over and only maybe two are unfamiliar, if that.
You must be really busy out all day.
There were four arrests. I don't know about convictions.

So....you live in a town of under 20k people and have been to less than 10 towns of the same size over the course of your lifetime? I didn't say you had to interact with all of them, basically I was just saying that they needed to be in your general area of awareness (basically as far as you can see or hear them), close enough to you that you could have been relatively easily alerted to them committing a crime at the same time as you were in their vicinity. That's what I'm counting as an incident. Because if the 22 people who committed crimes in your immediate area weren't committing crimes, you probably would not have been aware of them at all; it was their crimes that alerted you to their presence. So to get an idea of how representative those interactions were of all the incidents in your lifetime, you need to think about all the people who you haven't been aware of or alerted to. This is what I mean about statistical anomalies being presented as statistical norms. It's a combination of confirmation bias and the availability heuristic. The violent interactions stand out in your mind more than the non-violent ones, clouding the fact that the non-violent ones must actually be higher in number than the violent ones, and expanding the number of violent interactions compared to all incidents also conforms to your personal expectations about the world.

Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil, for I have a sonic screwdriver, a tricorder, and a Type 2 phaser.
- three
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Reply #32 - July 24, 2017, 02:59 AM

What are you going on about? I am referring to crimes I was standing there for/running to or away from, knowing the perps or victims. Not crimes in my town or general vicinity.
I knew them. This is people I know, not strangers. I sure wish I did not know some of them.
And yeah. I was in purdah for six years, a safehouse for six months, and a tiny town in farm country for the last five.

Don't let Hitler have the street.
- gal_from_usa
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Truce in the Culture War
Reply #33 - July 24, 2017, 03:08 AM

Quote from: three on July 24, 2017, 02:59 AM
What are you going on about? I am referring to crimes I was standing there for/running to or away from, knowing the perps or victims. Not crimes in my town or general vicinity.
I knew them. This is people I know, not strangers. I sure wish I did not know some of them.
And yeah. I was in purdah for six years, a safehouse for six months, and a tiny town in farm country for the last five.

If 22 violent white supremacists form a representative sample of your family/friends, then it sucks to be you. Child molesters form a representative sample of the people I grew up around, and it sucks to be me. What that DOESN'T indicate is that those people are representative of the population at large. And that's what I'm trying to get you to realize. Just because it sucks to be you or sucks to be me doesn't mean that everyone else's life must also suck just as bad, so trying to extrapolate your personal experience into public policy is misguided and harmful.

Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil, for I have a sonic screwdriver, a tricorder, and a Type 2 phaser.
- three
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Reply #34 - July 24, 2017, 03:12 AM

Yeah I think you are mistaken. Just because I was involved doesn't mean I was unique.

Don't let Hitler have the street.
- gal_from_usa
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Reply #35 - July 24, 2017, 03:31 AM

Quote from: three on July 24, 2017, 03:12 AM
Yeah I think you are mistaken. Just because I was involved doesn't mean I was unique.

Not unique; I'm sure it's also true of a number of also people...but also not representative of the statistical norm. Removing the IQ bit at the bottom, this is what a standard deviation looks like:

So let's say 0.13% of the US population (412,100 people--this is probably a bit high, honestly, but let's roll with it) are violent white supremacists, you're in the 2.14% bracket of people who know one or more violent white supremacists, and let's say that the other extreme is full of black supremacists and people who know them. That means that 6,783,800 Americans have had an experience with white supremacists that is similar to yours. That's not a small number, but it still only represents a tiny fraction of the population at large. The percent in the middle four brackets (let's call them "people who have never been effected by white/black supremacy, but know someone who has" and "people who have never been effected by white/black supremacy, and don't know anyone who has") is 85%, or 269,450,000 people. And so your insistence that your experiences must be the experiences of those 269,450,000 people because it represents the experiences of 6,780,000 people is just wrong.

Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil, for I have a sonic screwdriver, a tricorder, and a Type 2 phaser.
- three
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Reply #36 - July 24, 2017, 11:11 AM

Well I hope you are right, but that's not what I have heard.

Don't let Hitler have the street.
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