Then how do you justify the passage from "there are some weird chances" to "I'm pretty comfortable staking my eternal torture on it". That is an emotional leap, isn't it?
Easily. I guess we can divide it into two major parts.
Part one would be that I could say this about
anything. Christianity, Buddhism, Rastafari, Pastafari, turtles all the way down, that we're in the matrix, that we're all characters in an advanced The Sims game. And yeah, sure, Islam has some pretty gruesome punishments if you don't win this lottery, but so does Christianity and a bunch of others.
In fact, I could tell you right now about my new religion that requires you to clap your hands at the stroke of midnight every day for the rest of your life, and failure to conform to this religion will ensure you a seat in a hell so truly terrible that you'd want to go to Islamic hell for vacation. And you can't prove that that's not true, but you can feel pretty certain that it's bullshit.
Which leads us to part two: for a lot of reasons, it sounds like bullshit. And I can personally conceive of many better models, and many more likely scenarios to explain our existence and how we came to be. Islam looks, sounds and smells to me like something that came out of the mind of a man a thousand some odd years ago who knew little about the natural world. Islam is so far towards the bottom of the list of models that sound convincing for this world that even all of its threats fail to send so much as a shiver down my spine.